Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL
DECRESE AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. BACKING SFC WINDS LATE TONGITH WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF
LLWS AT KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRE WX WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS AND THUS IT APPEARS THAT MOS DEW POINTS ARE TOO HIGH AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT MIX THIS DRIER AIR DOWN AND KEEP DEW POINTS FROM RISING MUCH
AT ALL UNTIL TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH BUT
GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE ERN OK SITES. GUSTS MAY REACH
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY AROUND SUNSET.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ITS A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
ARE SET TO REBOUND NICELY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND EVEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ON FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL INTERCEPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND WILL ENHANCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1216 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST OF A MCALESTER TO JAY LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO
JAY. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE MORE LIMITED ELSEWHERE DUE TO LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRE
THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
STRONGER FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.