Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
POCKET OF VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR BUT AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS
UNDER CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL FOR
INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING DROP DEW POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AT 65 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
AND GIVE CURRENT AND EXPECTED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR ALL BUT NW ARKANSAS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TEMP/DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. 10KFT CIGS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE 05-07KFT LATER TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY. BY 15Z...NW WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD RAPIDLY SUBSIDE BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE POISED TO
OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL ALSO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT A FREEZE
WARNING IS NEXT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

GUSTY WINDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS ANY FIRES THAT DO IGNITE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...
RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE MET DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THE STORMS ON
SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE SHOWERS WILL END ON MONDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1118 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF
OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK
FRONT FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF TULSA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.