Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

667 
WWUS83 KTOP 211635
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...

.NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MIXING WILL CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO 18 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037-220100-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0007.140321T1800Z-140322T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
1135 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND VERY DRY
FUELS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 REPUBLIC...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 009 WASHINGTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 010 MARSHALL...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 020 CLOUD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CLAY...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 022 RILEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 023 POTTAWATOMIE... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 OTTAWA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 035 
  DICKINSON... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 GEARY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  037 MORRIS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
  AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OCCURRING BY MID AND LATE
  AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR BY MID
  AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 19 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW 60S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL GROW AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  THESE FIRES WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO 
  CONTROL. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED TODAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

552 
WWUS83 KTOP 220100
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
800 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014


KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037-220200-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140322T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
800 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND A PART OF NORTHEAST KANSAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

An upper level trough will move east across the northern plains and
upper Midwest Today. This will cause a cold front across central NE
early this morning to move southward across the CWA during the
morning hours. The front will go through dry without much in the way
of cloud cover. The BKN Cirrus overcast across the southern half of
the CWA should shift southward through the afternoon hours.

Highs Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday's highs,
with highs in the lower to mid 60s. north winds will increase to 15
to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH by afternoon.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the night as the
north winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

The Strong Canadian high pressure system over the northern plains
will continue to filter unseasonably cold air into the cwa through
the weekend and into the first part of next week. Highs Saturday
through next Tuesday will commonly be in the 40s...although some
readings in the upper 30s are expected near and north of I 70 with
lows in the 20s.

At this time...think the precip Saturday and Sunday will remain
west and south of the county warning area (cwa). However...with
the approach and passage of the next northwest flow shortwave
trough late Sunday night into Monday...increasing warm air
advection....isentropic lift/frontogenetical forcing to the
northwest of the cwa will spread/develop southeastward into the
cwa through the day Monday...exiting the far eastern cwa by late
afternoon. Will leave Sunday night dry...but light snow may not be
too far to the north of the Nebraska border by sunrise Monday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to trend colder...especially
across the northeast corner of the cwa and a little warmer further
south and westward. Will therefore carry precip type as all snow
across the northeast corner and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Could
see a brief minor accumulation (less than an inch) in the far
northeast if temperatures remain cold enough through
midday...otherwise the snow could melt as it falls if readings are
able to recover into the middle and upper 30s. Elsewhere...no
accumulation of snow is expected at this time and precip should
end before evening. The coldest morning should be Wednesday where
the combination of light east winds and clear skies with the cold
air in place should result in lows from the upper teens to middle
20s. A return to a more zonal flow aloft and the approach of a
shortwave trough by mid week will result in moderating temperatures
into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and Thursday along with a chance
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

VFR conditions to continue through the period. A frontal boundary
will move through the terminals in the 14Z-16Z time period. Winds
will increase through 18Z from the north at speeds near 16 kts
with gusts to near 26 kts. The winds will gradually decrease after
00Z with north winds under 10 mph by 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

North winds will increase behind the surface cold front this
afternoon. Expect north winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts
to 30 MPH by afternoon. The NAM and RUC models show deep mixing to
800MB across the central and western portions of the CWA. The deep
mixing should cause minimum relative humidities to drop to 17 to 20
percent across the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. A
combination of low RH's, wind gusts above 25 MPH and dry fuels will
create extreme fire danger conditions along and west of a
Marysville, to Westmoreland, to Junction City, to Council Grove
line. Therefore a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the area with
extrema fire danger.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
658 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.