Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Tallahassee, FL

274 
WGUS72 KTAE 310424
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAC185-310434-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140831T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWNDES GA-
1224 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL LOWNDES
COUNTY...

RAINFALL HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND NO FLOODING REPORTS HAVE 
BEEN RECEIVED...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3072 8318 3074 8338 3085 8335 3086 8335
      3090 8335 3088 8318

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With a deep layer ridge in place regionally, this afternoons
convection appeared to have no synoptic connection. Instead,
convection across north Florida was primarily seabreeze driven as
evidenced by the visible imagery. Across Georgia and Alabama,
shallow convection appeared to be forced along weak differential
heating boundaries on the edge of more efficiently mixed areas.
After a few hours, boundary interactions took over and any ongoing
convection across south Georgia is beginning to thin out and
weaken. There is a possibility of a few storms moving in along the
east coast seabreeze outflow in our southeast Big Bend counties.
Overall, a weakening trend is expected over the next few hours.
Expect lows in the lower 70s inland, and middle 70s near the
coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue this evening, mainly in South
GA and North FL around KABY and KVLD. Otherwise VFR conditions are
likely until around dawn. Persistence and statistical guidance
suggest IFR vis and/or cigs are possible at most terminals around
dawn, while the latest ensemble of high-res NWP, SREF, and HRRR
forecast MVFR/VFR conditions. We leaned more toward the more
optimistic guidance in this forecast package, but we can revisit
this on the 06z package. Generally VFR conditions are expected
Sunday by mid to late morning, but scattered TSRA will develop in
the afternoon. The highest PoP is at KTLH, KECP, and KVLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [352 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Ridging will slowly build over the region through the short term
period. With light south to southeasterly flow at the surface for
the next couple of days, expect storms to largely be driven by the
daily sea breeze circulation. Storm coverage may be less on Monday
as the ridge becomes more established across the region. With a
building ridge, and more scattered storm coverage, expect
temperatures to gradually warm into the mid 90s each afternoon and
lows in the low to mid 70s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the
Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early
in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the
lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will
near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to
the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of
the period, rain chances will be on the increase.

Temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be a
couple of degrees above climatology through Thursday and then
near normal late in the period due to increased convective
activity.

.Marine...
High pressure just east of the marine area will keep south to
southeasterly winds 10 knots or less through the next several
days. Lingering southerly swell will keep seas west of
Apalachicola near 3 feet at times into Monday.

.Fire Weather...
Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for
the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the
foreseeable future.

.Hydrology...
River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  96  74  96  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
Panama City   78  92  75  92  77 /  20  20  10  20  10
Dothan        72  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
Albany        73  97  73  97  74 /  40  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      72  95  72  96  71 /  60  40  20  40  20
Cross City    72  94  73  95  72 /  40  50  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  90  78  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1043 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S PHILEMA             31.72N 84.01W
08/30/2014  M3.04 INCH       WORTH              GA   MESONET

            THE FLINT RIVER GAUGE NEAR OAKFIELD MEASURED 3.04 INCHES
            OF RAINFALL IN 3 HOURS

&&

DVD