Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 521

October 2, 20146 parishes in Louisiana; 48 counties in Mississippi; 21 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 2, 2014, 10:11 PM CDT for 6 parishes in Louisiana; 48 counties in Mississippi; 21 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 2, 2014, 10:11 PM CDT (03:11 UTC)
Expired
Oct 3, 2014, 3:08 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 75 counties

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 2, 10:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCoahoma, DeSoto, Panola, Quitman, Tallahatchie, Tate and 2 more43 min
Oct 2, 10:48 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGDeSoto, Marshall, Tate42 min
Oct 2, 10:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrockett, Dyer, Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale, Obion and 2 more41 min
Oct 2, 10:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, DeSoto, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Quitman and 3 more52 min
Oct 2, 11:10 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall32 min
Oct 2, 11:13 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGBenton, DeSoto, Marshall23 min
Oct 2, 11:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCarroll, Chester, Crockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson and 5 more45 min
Oct 2, 11:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola and 4 more47 min
Oct 2, 11:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDyer, Gibson, Henry, Obion, Weakley40 min
Oct 3, 12:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Itawamba, Lee, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Tippah and 2 more67 min
Oct 3, 12:38 AM CDTTornado WarningMEGItawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Tishomingo36 min
Oct 3, 1:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCheatham, Dickson, Hickman, Williamson31 min
Oct 3, 1:31 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXHickman, Lewis, Maury44 min
Oct 3, 1:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNoxubee, Oktibbeha, Winston47 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2014-10-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 770 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2014-10-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 119 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
770 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1133 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

348 
WWUS20 KWNS 030314
SEL1  
SPC WW 030314
LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-031000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
  NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
  WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
  UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI TO 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 519...WW 520...

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE...ISOLATED MEASURED
SVR GUSTS...FEW STG MISOCYCLONES...AND A RECENT TORNADO REPORT IN
CRAIGHEAD COUNTY AR...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PRIMARY DAMAGING-GUST
THREAT AS IT MOVES OVER WW AREA.  ORGANIZATION OF MCS SHOULD LESSEN
NEAR E EDGE OF WW...ESPECIALLY OVER MID TN AND NERN MS...AS IT
ENTERS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS.  HOWEVER...FAVORABLY
LARGE WARM-SECTOR HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL IN
MEANTIME.  TORNADO RISK ALSO MAY EXIST FROM SMALL/ROTATING CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 2, 7:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell, De Soto, Evangeline and 9 more57 min
Oct 2, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBossier, Claiborne, Morehouse, Union, Webster, West Carroll115 min
Oct 2, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeauregard, Caldwell, De Soto, Grant, LaSalle, Natchitoches and 5 more7 hr
Oct 2, 9:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, West Carroll2 hr
Oct 2, 11:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell and 23 more55 min
Oct 2, 11:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Calcasieu and 18 more5 hr
Oct 2, 11:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Richland and 2 more115 min
Oct 3, 2:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland and 21 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2014Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2014Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2014Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.