Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1908

November 10, 2014Iron County, Michigan; 12 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 10, 2014, 10:06 AM CST for Iron County, Michigan; 12 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2014, 10:06 AM CST (16:06 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2014, 2:00 PM CST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 25 counties

Iron County, MI, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wright County, MN, Barron County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 581 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 336 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 758 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

819 
ACUS11 KWNS 101607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101606 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-102000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...AND WRN
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 101606Z - 102000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING ENEWD WITHIN A BAND FROM E CENTRAL/SERN MN TO WRN PORTIONS
OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WSW-ENE BAND OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN AND
NRN WI ATTM...N OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS IA AND THE NRN
IL/SRN WI BORDER VICINITY.  THIS SNOW BAND IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
ZONE OF MAXIMIZED QG FORCING -- WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS ONGOING JUST E OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX CROSSING ERN SD
PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.

AS THIS FEATURE AND -- IN CONJUNCTION -- THE RELATED ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROGRESS EWD...HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS NRN WI AND TOWARD/INTO WRN UPPER MI WITH TIME. 
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA AND SREF FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE NARROW BAND
PERSISTING/SPREADING GRADUALLY ENEWD WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44829482 45339506 45709440 46279187 46568885 46138835
            45568869 45289065 44889275 44829482

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 10, 2:32 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dickinson, Gogebic, Iron	4 hr
Nov 9, 11:02 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Stone, Traverse	5 hr
Nov 10, 3:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Chisago, Douglas and 17 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.