Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2014, 7:18 PM CDT for Beaver County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 7, 2014, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 7, 2014, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Beaver County, OK, Texas County, OK, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 776 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2796 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
830
ACUS11 KWNS 080019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080018
TXZ000-OKZ000-080215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080018Z - 080215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN DEEP CONVECTION INVOF A SFC TROUGH ANALYZED
NW/SE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF N
TX. RELATIVELY MOISTER AIR E OF THE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A DEEPLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT OWING TO ANTECEDENT DIURNAL HEATING -- REF. 00Z
AMA RAOB. WHILE THIS RAOB AND THE AMA VWP SAMPLE A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT -- 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20 KT -- CONVECTIVE
REGENERATION WILL BE PREFERENTIALLY FAVORED ALONG ERN/SERN FLANKS OF
CONGEALING COLD POOLS. RELATED PROPAGATION EFFECTS MAY SUPPORT A
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE
STEEP-LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RAOB INDICATES AROUND 1500 J/KG OF
DCAPE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A
MORE ORGANIZED SVR RISK FROM ENSUING.
..COHEN/GUYER.. 08/08/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34460037 35230160 36530237 36880212 36930102 36720028
35380002 34460037SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 4:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 10 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.