Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1421
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 21, 2014, 4:01 PM CDT for 11 counties in Minnesota; 35 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2014, 4:01 PM CDT (21:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2014, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties
Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Grant County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3163 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -177 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1523 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 94 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
310
ACUS11 KWNS 212102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212101
MNZ000-NDZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ND AND NORTHERN MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 426...
VALID 212101Z - 212230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ND...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ IS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN. TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES ACROSS ND
UNTIL 00Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS HIGHLY
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
ISSUANCE POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 22-23Z.
DISCUSSION...A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ANGLE GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ND AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AN INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS OF 2045Z...WITH A STRONG SOUTH-END
SUPERCELL NEAR I-94 EAST OF THE DICKINSON AREA. A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO
RISK IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AND ANY OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ND.
THAT SAID...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION
OF A SPATIALLY EXPANDING QUASI-LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVALENT SCENARIO INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ND. AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD /POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 KT FORWARD
MOTION/...WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND. THIS MCS WILL THRIVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z
OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/20Z SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUPPORTIVE OF
2500-5000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND.
..GUYER.. 07/21/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46910227 48360152 49009816 48789500 47059508 46109803
46110200 46910227SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 5:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Clay, Kittson, Mahnomen, Marshall, Norman and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 21, 12:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Benson, Billings, Burleigh, Dunn, Grant and 16 more | 83 min |
| Jul 21, 1:09 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Benson, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke and 33 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 21, 3:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Benson, Burleigh, Dunn, Eddy, Emmons and 20 more | 55 min |
| Jul 21, 6:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy and 18 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.