Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

996 
WGUS75 KSLC 142043
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
243 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

UTC017-055-142300-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140814T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE UT-GARFIELD UT-
243 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PLEASANT CREEK...BURRO WASH...COTTONWOOD WASH...AS 
WELL AS SHEETS GULCH WITHIN CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK. DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATES ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THESE 
DRAINAGES...WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING. THIS RAINFALL  
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ALONG THESE DRAINAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 11112 3817 11105 3810 11106 3809 11125
      3819 11125

$$

MPS

713 
WGUS75 KSLC 142300
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

UTC017-055-142308-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140814T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE UT-GARFIELD UT-
500 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN
GARFIELD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM MDT...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE HAVE LIKELY MOVED THROUGH THE AFFECTED DRAINAGES 
AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3822 11112 3817 11105 3810 11106 3809 11125
      3819 11125

$$

MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1039 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DRY FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DIED OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE GOES PW SOUNDER SHOWS PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 TO
0.8...WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA.
HOWEVER...THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT ALTHOUGH PWS ARE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE ARE THE
SAME OR HIGHER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...EXPECT THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA...SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 18Z- 22Z WILL BE THE TIME
PERIOD WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS DRIER AIR MIXING TO
THE SURFACE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE
ACTIVITY. THE SPC SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...AND SHOWS MIXED LAYER
CAPE AND LI'S DECREASING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...UPDATED THE POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS DRIER AIR...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT
IN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. FOR
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A CUTOFF LOW
RETROGRADES OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A LITTLE
STRONGER RIDGE THAN DOES THE GFS AND ACCORDINGLY HAS 7H TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 1-2C WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUPPORT
THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH MOST MEMBERS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
AMPLITUDE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. FOR THE SUN-WED PERIOD...HEAVILY
UTILIZED BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH FELL
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WILL PREVENT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM DEVELOPING.  AS A
RESULT MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
UTAH. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW LARGELY FROM THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A DRY
STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 20-21Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
312 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-151300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
312 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN UTAH TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX