Wind Advisory 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

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WWUS74 KSJT 201213 AAA
NPWSJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
613 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM FOR AREAS MAINLY
EAST OF HASKELL...TO ANSON...TO COLEMAN LINE...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

TXZ098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-202200-
/O.CON.KSJT.WI.Y.0002.140220T1600Z-140220T2200Z/
HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-
BROWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...
STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...
CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
613 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS: DRIVING ON ROADS ORIENTED IN EAST AND WEST 
  DIRECTIONS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 20...WILL BE DIFFICULT...AND 
  HAZARDOUS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATING ON AREA LAKES WILL 
  BE HAZARDOUS...AND UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WILL BE 
  TOSSED OR MOVED. 

* TIMING: 10 AM TO 4 PM

* WINDS: NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH AND/OR
WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 AM THU FEB 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Cooler and windy today...

Currently, a strong shortwave is moving east across the Central
Plains. A surface low associated with this upper level storm is
intensifying as it translates east/northeast across southern
KS/northern OK. Due to the pressure falls from this surface low, our
pressure gradient has remained strong enough to keep winds in the 10
to 15 knot range for most sites tonight. So, although we are very
moist, fog has not been a problem so far. West to northwest winds
are already moving into caprock area northwest of our forecast area,
and will be moving into our counties around sunrise. Pressure rises
associated with surface high pressure diving south into west central
Texas today will be quite strong during the morning and early
afternoon hours, on the order of 10mb/3 hours. The strongest rises
are expected across Oklahoma and North Texas, and to our east.
However, there will be enough of a push south from these pressure
rises along and east of a Haskell/Abilene/Coleman line that we will
see winds near 25 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph in these areas.
A Wind Advisory for these counties will be in effect beginning mid
morning, and continue through late afternoon. Pressure rises quickly
diminish during the afternoon hours, so these winds should diminish
as well before the next regular forecast issuance. We will be able
to mix to around 800mb across the area by late morning as well, and
winds will be much stronger at this height, so gusts could reach
around 40 mph at times across the advisory area.

Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler behind the cold
front across the area today with highs only getting into the lower
60s north of I-20, and lower 70s along the I-10 corridor.
Overnight, expect lows in the 30s for the most part, with valley
areas possibly falling below freezing if winds are light enough to
allow good radiational cooling.

The Red Flag Warning will be left intact, and will be discussed
further in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

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.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The forecast area will be under a quasi-zonal flow aloft into next
week. Highs on Friday will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms, in
upper 60s to the lower 70s. Morning lows will also be above seasonal
norms, mostly in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. The next
cold front is expected on Sunday with a prefrontal warm-up on
Saturday into the upper 70s. Sunday will see afternoon highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s over the Big Country with upper 60s to
the upper 70s south of interstate 20, depending on the speed and
subsequent position of the cold front.

Another cold front is projected to enter the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon. After afternoon highs in the 60s area-wide on
Monday, prefrontal highs on Tuesday will be in 60s over the Big
Country and in the 70s south of Interstate 20. Models continue their
disagreement in regard to precipitation chances associated with the
Tuesday cold front with the GFS hinting at some postfrontal
overrunning rain chances late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The latest
ECMWF is not as aggressive as the GFS. In any event, will reflect
cooler post-frontal temperatures for Wednesday but will continue to
hold off introducing any precipitation until the models come into
better agreement.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
...Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM today...

Critical fire weather conditions expected areawide today, and
should begin by late morning. Gusty northwest winds will move in
behind a cold front this morning. Winds will increase to 20 to 25
mph across most of the area by mid morning, and possibly as high
as 25 to 35 mph across areas east of a Haskell to Abilene to
Coleman line by late morning. Drier air will follow the winds, so
although temperatures will be much cooler today, relative humidity
values will drop below 20 percent across the area, and in some
cases for several hours. The one area that may have the hardest
time seeing relative humidity values below 20 percent is the same
area that will see the strongest winds. So, although they may not
technically meet Red Flag criteria from an RH standpoint, their
winds will likely make up for that deficiency. Winds will diminish
during the afternoon when we reach our lowest RH values, but will
still be strong enough to contribute to control problems for any
fires that may ignite.

Friday still looks very dry, but wind speeds also continue to
trend less than 20 mph. Fire weather conditions will remain
elevated through the weekend as we slowly bring moisture back into
the area. We will see frequent cold frontal passages over the next
week or so, resulting in a series of winds shifts for the area.
Stay tuned to future forecasts for specific timing of these
fronts.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  35  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 	 70  31  74  44  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction 	 73  30  71  41  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coleman...Haskell...
Jones...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
301 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202115-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
301 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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