Wind Advisory 32, NWS San Diego, CA

167 
WWUS76 KSGX 142035
NPWSGX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 2 PM...

CAZ042-048-050-057-058-142145-
/O.EXP.KSGX.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-140414T2100Z/
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
135 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NO LONGER
REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR MORE.

$$

PG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
838 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST WILL DRIVE GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE DRY
AND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS BACK TOWARD
THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MORE NOCTURNAL CLOUDS AND COOLING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL GENERATE HIGHER
CLOUDS AS WELL...ALSO AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS STILL LIKELY ON THE COASTAL SLOPES
MONDAY...AND MAX TEMPS LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COAST...

MARINE CLOUDS NEVER TOTALLY CLEARED COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND ARE
FILLING BACK IN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR. WESTERLY WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING THROUGH AND BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AREA THIS EVENING TO AROUND 45 MPH. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL AROUND 8-9 MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS AT 03Z...
BUT HAD WEAKENED FROM NV AND WERE JUST TURNING OFFSHORE. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL INDICATED A DEEP MARINE LAYER CAPPED BY A 7
DEGREE C INVERSION NEAR 3800 FT.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT IS DIGGING SE TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MON MORNING...INCREASING SFC PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND FORCING OFFSHORE FLOW AS FAR WEST AS SOCAL.
BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE HIGH...THE SFC GRADIENT SHOULD
NOT BE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NV/CA SO STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE LATEST 18Z WRFEMS GUIDANCE
CONFIRMS ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 KT ON THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL THE COASTAL SLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RIVERSIDE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MON WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH EXPECTED.

THE OFFSHORE WEAKENS RAPIDLY MON AFTERNOON...AND TURNS BACK ONSHORE
ON TUE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AT THE
SURFACE...SO IT WILL BE THE SPREAD OF THE WARM...CONTINENTAL AIR
WESTWARD...ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT
OF WARMING TO MIX DOWN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW REGARDING MAX TEMP FORECASTS MON/TUE OVER COASTAL AREAS BECAUSE
OF WHERE AND HOW DEEP THIS CONTINENTAL/MARINE AIR INTERFACE WILL BE.
THE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMP AT KSAN IS UP TO 20 DEGREES
FOR MON. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
DRYING INLAND MON AND TUE.

FOR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING...THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN
ACROSS N.A. WILL SEND US BACK ONSHORE AT THE SURFACE AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS FALL ACROSS THE WEST. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A
COASTAL EDDY TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RAPIDLY REBUILD THE MARINE LAYER
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND AVERAGE. CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER COASTAL
AREAS MUCH OF THE DAY WED ALONG WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REFORM JUST
OFFSHORE ON THU...AND SLIDE INLAND LATE FRI/SAT. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED FRI...AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN CHECK.
DESPITE A GFS FORECAST PW OF AROUND ONE INCH...THE MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR VIRGA IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
DEVELOP.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND SATURDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.
STILL...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
140330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING INLAND THIS EVENING...REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES BY 09Z
MON. OVC CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FT MSL BY 12Z
MON...AND AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS 1-3 SM DEVELOPING. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD BRIEFLY REACH KONT BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z BUT A CIG THERE IS
UNLIKELY. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 09Z MON WILL BRING CLEARING
VCNTY KONT AND KSNA...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LLWS AFT 12Z MON. LLWS
COULD ALSO REACH KCRQ AFT 15Z MON. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO CLEAR
TO THE COAST BY 16Z MON. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

MTS/COASTAL SLOPES...ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE GUSTS TO 45KT...LOCALLY HIGHER THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...INCLUDING THE BANNING PASS AND THE I-8
CORRIDOR. WINDS DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A 6-7 FOOT WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A 10-SECOND PERIOD WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SWELL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES IN THE OUTER WATERS. THIS
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS...THOUGH UNLIKELY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES OF
8-15 PERCENT WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS ON MONDAY. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOCALLY OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE BANNING AREA OF
RIVERSIDE COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY MON AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE TUE WITH INCREASING RH WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS