Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND.  WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
MOISTURE KEEPS PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITHOUT CEASING. CONVECTION IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THE MOMENT...AND HAVE SHIFTED ATTENTION TO
POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES. SEEM TO BE GETTING ENOUGH BREAKS FOR NOW
HOWEVER...SO THINK A FLOODING THREAT IS LOW. STILL...TRAINING
CELLS CAN BECOME PROBLEMATIC OF COURSE.

HAVE BUMPED UP THE LIKELY POP COVERAGE AND EXTENDED IT FURTHER
INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PW VALUES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.25 TO
1.50 INCHES ATTM. STORMS ARE FIRING WITH HEATING ALONG LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NEW SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO
MORE CONVECTION. FAIRLY UNSTABLE...BUT LIGHT FLOW SO NOT REALLY
CONCERNED WITH SEVERE BUT WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE. CLEARING OUT ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING AND
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED GUIDANCE SO THEY WERE NOT ADJUSTED MUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES.
TIMING AND CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST VA AND SOUTHWEST VA...CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...THROUGH AT LEAST 09-11Z.

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z...WITH
THE ONSET OF PEAK HEATING. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CKB TO
CRW...WITH MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MATERIALIZATION AND TIMING COULD
VARY. FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/12/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL FOG 06Z TO 12Z LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/LS
NEAR TERM...JS/26
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-130000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
757 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
823 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

OHZ075-085-120100-
ATHENS OH-MEIGS OH-
823 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN MEIGS AND CENTRAL ATHENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 819 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
RUTLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALBANY AROUND 830 PM...ATHENS AROUND 850 PM
AND THE PLAINS AROUND 900 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3946 8219 3940 8191 3906 8210 3908 8223

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW SALEM             39.26N  80.63W
06/12/2014                   DODDRIDGE          WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TO 4 FEET OF SWIFT MOVING WATER OVER ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1401030

SL