Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH THE
FRONT. MODELS SEEM TO MOVE HEAVY RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
PUEBLO COUNTY BEFORE THE MAIN CONVECTION STARTS MOVING TO THE
EAST. HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH WITH THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRSITO
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING.

.SUNDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY START MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDING STILL SHOW 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
ON THE PLAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND HOW SLOWLY IT WILL
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS
THAN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE SO STORMS MAY MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS SET UP SUCH THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
COLORADO UNDER A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES TO THE E
AND NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE E PLAINS AND MTS EACH DAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS THE RIDGE TO THE SW FLATTENS...AND A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL AND TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT KALS BY MID EVENING...AND BY LATE
EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY AT THE TAF
SITES...AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>088.

&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-131315-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON.
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THE STORMS WILL SPREAD TO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. THE BURN SCARS ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE RAINFALL COULD BE SUFFICIENTLY HEAVY THAT FLASH
FLOODING AWAY FROM THE BURN SCARS IS ALSO A CONCERN.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN... CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO
A THREAT FROM ANY STORMS. A STORM OR TWO MAY BE BRIEFLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WELL INTO
SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER THREATS FROM STORMS
THAT DEVELOP INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

06/06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COZ089-122300-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-
408 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

AT 408 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF CROWLEY...OR 34 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LA JUNTA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORDWAY AND SUGAR CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 10355 3822 10402 3850 10404 3849 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 158DEG 7KT 3840 10391

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
445 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BOONE             38.20N 104.24W
07/12/2014  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

&&

MN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW BLACK FOREST       38.96N 104.76W
07/12/2014  M3.25 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN PAST 24 HOURS. MOST FELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
504 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COZ074-075-087-122345-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
504 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 504 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPANISH PEAKS...OR 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST PEAK
BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PUEBLO.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10493 3744 10497 3749 10484 3742 10479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 233DEG 3KT 3741 10490

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
611 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLOOD            7 W CANON CITY          38.45N 105.35W
07/12/2014                   FREMONT            CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED BY STATE PATROL ALONG HIGHWAY
            50.

&&

MN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COZ079-083-086-130100-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 619 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PUEBLO RESERVOIR...OR 11 MILES
WEST OF PUEBLO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED .5 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN SO FAR...AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 715 PM MDT.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PUEBLO RESERVOIR AROUND 630 PM MDT.
  WESTERN PUEBLO AROUND 650 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE COLORADO CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 10504 3843 10506 3834 10462 3791 10461
      3790 10483 3808 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 248DEG 17KT 3825 10483

MOORE