Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Pueblo, CO

109 
WWUS55 KPUB 210001
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
601 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

COC011-210015-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140621T0015Z/
BENT CO-
601 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BENT COUNTY...

AT 601 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
HASTY...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR AND CADDOA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3784 10308 3796 10302 3807 10295 3807 10276
      3778 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 263DEG 7KT 3794 10292 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

CURRENTLY...AS ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER FAR SE CO...EXTENDING FROM S OF KLAA TO
THE KIM AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE U80S TO L90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...WITH 60S AND 70S MAINLY IN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS.

REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING....

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE
EAST WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD
WITH OUTFLOWS THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. AS HEATING
DECREASES...TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH. IN THE MEANTIME...WE COULD
SEE STORMS OVER THE FAR SE PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...

LOW LVL JET WILL CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE OVER FAR SE CO WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
JET....WITH 50 MPH WINDS ONE TO TWO THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND.
WINDS HIGHER UP WILL LIKELY NOT EXCEED 20 MPH....WITH MOST OF THE
WINDS IN THE COLUMN LESS THAN 10 MPH. POP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE PLAINS.

SATURDAY...

SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THAN TODAY. THERE IS
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN POP CHANCES FOR TOMORROW WITH NAM AND EC
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON WHILE
THE GFS DOES NOT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTER 00Z TOMORROW. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC AND HAVE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD
POPS OVER THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE RATON MESA REGION AND OVER KIOWA COUNTY. T

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS
OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

AS OF THIS DISCUSSION...MAIN LONGER TERM ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT PRIMARY NORTHERLY
SURGE(AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE) WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER SUNDAY AND
COMBINE WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES TO CREATE INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AT TIMES DURING THE LATER SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME AS LOCALIZED CAPE...LIS AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES NEAR AND/OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG...-8C AND 50 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THEN...GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY LATER NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS. FINALLY...COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB
...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLD THUNDER AT KCOS AND KPUB TOMORROW LATE
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF
PRODUCTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-211700-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1047 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE REGION...AND THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD...AND THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH
MAY INCREASE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR AREA BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
225 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

COZ096-098-202100-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-
225 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 223 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BRISTOL...OR 14 MILES EAST OF LAMAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD FORM A WEAK ROPE
TORNADO AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PROWERS COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANADA...HARTMAN AND BRISTOL.

LAT...LON 3802 10232 3812 10250 3838 10234 3823 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 215DEG 14KT 3813 10236

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

COZ096-098-202130-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-
259 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 259 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF HARTMAN...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST
OF COOLIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARTMAN...TOWNER AND BRISTOL.

LAT...LON 3806 10225 3812 10240 3813 10240 3856 10217
      3851 10204 3831 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 203DEG 20KT 3830 10219

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

COZ097-098-202200-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
336 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PROWERS AND EAST
CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 335 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMAR.

LAT...LON 3777 10278 3792 10290 3812 10264 3786 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 238DEG 24KT 3789 10276

HODANISH