Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Phoenix, AZ

July 13, 2014Maricopa County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 13, 2014, 5:28 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2014, 5:28 PM MST (00:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2014, 7:30 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Maricopa County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 7 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 136 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3010 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

371 
WGUS55 KPSR 140028
FFWPSR
AZC013-140230-
/O.NEW.KPSR.FF.W.0009.140714T0028Z-140714T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
528 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  THIS INCLUDES AHWATUKEE...TEMPE...

* UNTIL 730 PM MST

* AT 515 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED   
  VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. DOPPLER WEATHER    
  RADAR INDICATES OVER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN     
  SINCE 4 PM IN SOME AREAS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PAPAGO
  PARK...TEMPE MARKETPLACE...ARIZONA MILLS MALL...ARIZONA STATE
  FAIRGROUNDS...SOUTH PHOENIX...DOWNTOWN PHOENIX...SKY HARBOR AIRPORT
  AND ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT PEOPLE ALONG THE BANKS OF WASHES AND
CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. NORMALLY DRY WASHES
AND STREAMS WILL SUDDENLY HAVE RUNNING WATER AND MAKE UNBRIDGED
CROSSINGS IMPASSABLE. STREETS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW SPOTS WILL
BECOME INUNDATED MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN MOTORIZED VEHICLES. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS...MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 11211 3345 11189 3329 11195 3330 11213

$$

MCLANE

1 follow-up statement

705 
WGUS75 KPSR 140150
FFSPSR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
650 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

AZC013-140159-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140714T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICOPA AZ-
650 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL MARICOPA
COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DISSIPATED. 
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH THE EVENING. 

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THIS EVENING...WATCH FOR FLOODING AND STAY 
CLEAR OF AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3347 11211 3345 11189 3329 11195 3330 11213

$$

WOODALL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 13, 2:20 PM MST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:20 PM MST, 3 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV...AND ISN\T WASTING ANY TIME MOVING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS /BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ OF 15-20KTS WERE NOTED
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER THIS MORNING ON REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND THIS CERTAINLY WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROX 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP.

STILL LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE DESERTS LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY TRENDS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS WILL CLIMB
SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. AS
ALWAYS...HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER AFTER THIS SURGE...HOW
CLOUDY IT WILL BE...ETC...WILL DICTATE JUST HOW ACTIVE THINGS WILL
BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SAMPLING OF NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS AMONG RECENT RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS AND 4KM
NAM IS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE RIM AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE DESERTS. WITH MLCAPE FORECASTS AROUND 1000 J/KG...STARTING TO
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STORMS ACROSS THE METRO. STORMS ON MONDAY
WILL MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 23Z EXTENDING
OUT TO 04Z. GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
BLOWING DUST ALSO A POSSIBLE THREAT. WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AND
GUSTY UNTIL 04Z GOING BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNTIL 02Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN A
CHANCE OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NO SIG AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...MO

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:46 PM MST, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
446 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     HIGLEY                  33.31N 111.72W
07/13/2014  M59 MPH          MARICOPA           AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400084

WOODALL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:02 PM MST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW GILBERT            33.32N 111.78W
07/13/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF RAY AND COOPER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400085

WOODALL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:04 PM MST, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
504 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W GILBERT             33.33N 111.78W
07/13/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARNER AND MCQUEEN.
            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400086

WOODALL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:05 PM MST, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N METRO CENTER        33.61N 112.12W
07/13/2014  E1.00 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST. 1.0 IN. OF RAIN IN 1 HR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400087

PSR

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:15 PM MST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S TEMPE               33.37N 111.93W
07/13/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR WARNER AND MCCLINTOCK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400088

WOODALL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 5:28 PM MST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
528 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE TEMPE              33.35N 111.88W
07/13/2014  M0.95 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.95 IN. RAIN IN 8 MIN. AT MCCLINTOCK AND WARNER. WATER
            COVERING STREET. SMALL TREE BLOWN DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400089

PSR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 5:07 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa, Pinal	35 min
Jul 13, 6:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Maricopa	44 min
Jul 13, 6:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Pinal	49 min
Jul 13, 6:47 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	Maricopa	118 min
Jul 13, 9:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa, Pinal	42 min
Jul 13, 9:44 PM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	PSR		76 min
Jul 13, 11:03 PM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	PSR		57 min
Jul 13, 11:08 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	Maricopa	112 min
Jul 13, 11:57 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	La Paz, Maricopa	108 min
Jul 14, 12:27 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		48 min
Jul 14, 1:15 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	60 min
Jul 14, 2:07 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	53 min
Jul 14, 2:09 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		51 min
Jul 14, 2:54 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		51 min
Jul 14, 3:07 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR	Gila	38 min
Jul 14, 3:17 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	PSR	Gila	118 min
Jul 14, 3:32 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		43 min
Jul 14, 4:37 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	PSR		38 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2014 Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.