Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

365 
WGUS76 KMTR 090228
FFSMTR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
628 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014

CAC097-090330-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140209T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SONOMA CA-
628 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SONOMA COUNTY...

RAIN RATES HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY SATURDAY 
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT...TO LOCALLY MODERATE...RAINFALL WAS BEING 
OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...STREAM GAGES HAD INDICATED THAT STREAMS HAD 
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WERE CONTINUING TO RECEDE. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SONOMA COUNTY 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL 
OFFSHORE...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS AREA 
OF ENHANCED RAINFALL MOVES INLAND LATER THIS EVENING...RAIN RATES 
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS 
BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...ADDITIONAL URBAN AND 
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING. NORTH BAY RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST 
WEATHER REPORTS AND BE PREPARED FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE 
FLOODING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

LAT...LON 3819 12255 3838 12283 3850 12287 3853 12279
      3834 12266 3813 12242 3812 12248

$$

DYKEMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1003 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST SATURDAY...STEADY RAINFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND PRIMARILY MOUNT TAMALPAIS IN MARIN COUNTY...WHERE THE MIDDLE
PEAK RAWS STATION HAS PICKED UP OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...AND OVER 5 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. GENERALLY
MOST AREAS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS HAVE
FALLEN...EXCEPT ACROSS BIG SUR WHERE NEARLY AN INCH HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
BOTH MARIN AND SOUTHERN SONOMA COUNTIES AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10:45 AM. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAINS APPROACHING...ESPECIALLY FROM
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTH BAY...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ANOTHER IMPULSE IS THEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS ONCE AGAIN AIMED MORE AT
THE NORTH BAY. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE...WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WRAPPING UP OVERNIGHT.

LATEST QPF ESTIMATES OF ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY WILL
RECEIVE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILD TEMPS. ANOTHER SIMILAR EVENT WILL TRY TO SET UP BY WEDS
BUT THE MODELS AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE LOOKS SLIM MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND COULD EXTEND THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
SANTA CRUZ...BUT THE BRUNT WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH
MID-MONTH AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:02 AM PST SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A BAND OF CLOUDS REPRESENTING THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STREAMING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING MVFR CIGS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO VFR FROM SAN JOSE SOUTH INTO
MONTEREY. A BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALSO BEING REPORTED FROM
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND NORTH WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME
FROM SAN JOSE SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE BAY AREA THAN FROM SAN
JOSE SOUTH SINCE CONDITIONS COULD RAPIDLY CHANGE IF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIDES SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC015-020. CIGS WILL FALL TO OVC010 OVERNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT BECOMING BKN-OVC025.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014

CAZ006-505>509-512-529-082300-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-
447 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTH BAY...SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE AND PENINSULA AS WELL AS SAN MATEO AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO MINOR HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE THE MARIN AND
SONOMA COUNTY HILLS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES COULD INUNDATE SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. IN ADDITION THE MAIN HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES AROUND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WILL BE PRONE TO URBAN FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS DURING ANY HEAVY DOWN POURS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED SHOULD MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEEKEND
STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN THE HILLS AND 2 INCHES IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.