Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
FROM LAST EVENING HAS DIED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS THE KEY FEATURE OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REGIONAL RADAR VIEW
SHOWS CONVECTION REGENERATING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
CONVECTION NEAR ABERDEEN IS EXPECTED TO GROW BUT ITS SOUTHERN
EXTENT LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED BASED ON THE LATEST HOPWRF AND
HRRR SOLUTIONS. THIS AREA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ABOUT REDWOOD
FALLS UNTIL LATER INITIATION EXTENDING SOUTH OCCURS LATE THIS
MORNING. HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE AGREED THAT SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POPS WAS NECESSARY
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL NEAR 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DECENT PV
ANOMALY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...AS WILL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND DECENT FGEN IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SO THIS
FORCING WILL HELP GET SOME ACTIVITY STARTED AND TAP IN TO THE
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO GENERALLY
EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUB SEVERE TODAY. AS THE LINE
MOVES EAST TOWARD WISCONSIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH EAU
CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

PREVALENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL MARK THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS WEAK IMPULSES TRACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE BELOW NORMAL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO THE FROPA.
ALSO EXPECT ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/FORCING TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE JET STRUCTURE BECOMES CONDUCIVE TO
IMPRESSIVE 250-700MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE PER BOTH 05.00Z
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT/TROUGH FROM FRIDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AS CAA ENSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY OVERALL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE ARRIVES ON MONDAY. HAVE NOT SEEN
A GREAT DEAL OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING ON THIS ONE...SO HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAY BRINGS WEAK BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF A
WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE LOW AND MID
70S. ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK...BUT
NOTABLE STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE WET...BUT THAT COULD SHIFT
BACKWARD OR FORWARD IN TIME BY 24 HOURS AS MODELS HONE IN ON A
SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

SHOWERS WEST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL APART AS THEY
WORK INTO ERN MN AS THEY RUN AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AND UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SE SODAK. BESIDE
THAT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS ALSO A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OUT WEST PER THE HRRR. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO FOLLOWED
ITS IDEAS FOR DECAYING THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY 20Z. FOR
TONIGHT...BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE SFC
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL STALL OUT OVER WRN MN AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. GIVEN RAINS SO FAR...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER CENTRAL MN
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFSLAMP IS HINTING AT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THEY DO
DEVELOP.

KMSP...LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR...WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFF
TO THE WEST FIZZLING OUT OVERHEAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SHRA IN THAT WINDOW. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN HOW ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN WILL
EVOLVE. BUT GIVEN CURRENT COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SUSPECT THE HRRR MAY BE BRINGING ANY ACTIVITY TOO FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF MSP...SO WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA IN THE AREA AT THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF...BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OUT AS CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WITH ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF 27-30 HOURS OUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
529 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
529 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...BUT THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS WHICH ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH AFTER
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MNZ041>043-048>051-057-051915-
BENTON-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-
122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE AREA...

AT 118 PM CDT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THIS AREA AND WILL BE AFFECTING LONG PRAIRIE...EAGLE
BEND AND SAUK CENTRE AREAS THROUGH 3 PM. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS TODD AND STEARNS COUNTY THROUGH
3 PM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...DOUGLAS...MORRISON...NORTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI...
NORTHWESTERN SHERBURNE...POPE...STEARNS AND TODD COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND EXERCISE APPROPRIATE
CAUTION.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CARLOS                  45.97N 95.29W
06/05/2014  M2.66 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7 AM

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
223 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N ALEXANDRIA          45.92N 95.38W
06/05/2014  M2.41 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7 AM

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
226 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALEXANDRIA              45.87N 95.38W
06/05/2014  M1.99 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7 AM AT ALEXANDRIA
            AIRPORT.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MNZ054-052100-
LAC QUI PARLE-
311 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

AT 309 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF MADISON...OR 12 MILES EAST OF ALBEE.
THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MARIETTA.
  FLORIDA CREEK WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA.
  MADISON.
  MADISON AIRPORT.
  DAWSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4502 9589 4480 9598 4481 9644 4513 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 290DEG 13KT 4499 9632