Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)....TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM CST RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
TODAY...BUT NO RAIN IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUE
TO MODIFY TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING...THEN
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW INCREASING LOW LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WAS
INDICATED...BUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE COOLEST READINGS LOOK TO
IMPACT INTERIOR AREAS WHERE LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE
MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /21

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SEMI-ORGANIZED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST...REACHING WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. A
SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...TAKING A
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY AFTER FORMING.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FA BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED SUNDAY WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OVER
THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE PUT FOG BACK IN
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING SHRA TO COME
CLOSE...BUT STAY OUT OF NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MISS RIVER TO EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING MODEST INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG OF MU-CAPE CLOSER TO
THE COAST) FOR RUMBLES. WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FA...AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PASSAGE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS A RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD OVER
THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...WITH THE FA UNDER
DRY...NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS COOL OFF FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...DROPPING TO
SEASONABLY COOL. AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX AND CLOUD LEVELS
INCREASE. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A MUTED
DIURNAL RANGE AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER THE NW-ERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKING IT
NE...ACROSS SE-ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN ORGANIZING AND MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW
NE...BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY ORGANIZES OVER THE FA AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE FA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE FA DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL CEILINGS MAY MOVE IN LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD MOSTLY AFTER 01/06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY BE VFR IN NATURE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT
AGL...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  47  71  52  74 /  10  10  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   60  47  70  53  72 /  05  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      59  48  67  53  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   62  40  73  47  76 /  05  10  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  62  45  72  52  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  41  72  49  77 /  10  20  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   64  39  74  43  77 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
      FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
      COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

21/16