Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
909 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE DRY AT THIS TIME MORE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
EVENING WORDING.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/

ADVANCING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME DRY AIR
BELOW 10 KFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE MEANDERING AROUND 60F WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...DEVELOPING GULF COAST LOW WILL QUICKLY
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS TRACKS TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
TRACK...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI STILL APPEARS
FAVORABLE WITH LATEST HPC GUIDANCE INDICATING 2 TO 3 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...AND ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SKINNY PLUME OF
NEAR 500 J/KG CAPE ALSO STILL PROGGED FROM 12Z MODEL RUNS TO
SLIDE INTO THE SAME REGION BETWEEN 08-12Z. WILL KEEP MENTION OF A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS LEE...ITWAMBA...CHICKASAW...AND
MONROE COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THOUGH
FEEL THAT A DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WHILE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL SECONDARY. SURROUNDING
THOSE COUNTIES A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DRY SLOT
CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S. FURTHER
NORTH...CLOUDS AND A RISK FOR SPRINKLES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE BROAD MAIN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
STARTS ITS DROP INTO THE TROUGH BASE.

TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN 500MB TEMPS
OF -26C TO -28C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THESE VALUES COUPLED WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60F WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED COLD CORE CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA
TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND PERHAPS COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PUSH EAST LATER IN THE EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SO A FROST ADVISORY
OR FREEZE WATCH/WARNING PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A VERY NICE SPRING PERIOD FOR THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. DEWPOINTS WILL
SLOWLY CREEP UP ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE PLEASANT
HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

NEXT WEEKEND...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PLAINS STORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DELAY
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE EURO AND GFS NOW AGREE ON
PHASING THE ENERGY. SO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR MOSTLY DRY WITH
RAIN MOVING IN OVER THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST MONDAY.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (07/00Z-08/00Z)

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN ENDING BETWEEN 07/17Z AND
07/21Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. WINDS TONIGHT NE-E
INCREASING TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KTUP WINDS
BECOMING E THEN SE AT 12 KTS. WINDS TURNING TO THE NW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
18-22 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  52  61  46  62 / 100  20  10  60
MKL  52  59  40  60 / 100  60  10  60
JBR  48  59  42  59 / 100  40  10  60
TUP  58  66  43  62 / 100  30  10  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TISHOMINGO.

TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
237 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-072145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
237 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO SECONDARY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM
THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER RURAL AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

JAB