Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS St. Louis, MO

382 
WWUS53 KLSX 212328
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ILC013-061-083-117-MOC113-183-219-212345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-140621T2345Z/
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-LINCOLN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
WARREN MO-
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WARREN...ST.
CHARLES...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...CALHOUN...WEST
CENTRAL MACOUPIN AND JERSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 626 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JERSEYVILLE TO TRELOAR...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. PAUL...LAKE ST. LOUIS...O'FALLON...DARDENNE PRAIRIE...
COTTLEVILLE...ST. PETERS...WELDON SPRING...GRAFTON...NEW MELLE...
SHIPMAN...DUTZOW...ELSAH...ORCHARD FARMS...PORTAGE DES SIOUX...
DEFIANCE...AUGUSTA...BRUSSELS...MEDORA...OTTERVILLE AND FIDELITY.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES PERE MARQUETTE STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 193 TO EXIT 227.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 8997 3900 9021 3900 9027 3895 9028
      3854 9090 3854 9092 3879 9128 3917 9074
      3946 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 333DEG 36KT 3913 9033 3867 9112

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

Thunderstorm trends remain the primary focus of the short term
forecast.  Expecting storms up over northeast MO and west central IL
to become more widespread through boundary interactions and
collisions.  Airmass is very unstable with SBCAPE in excess of 4500
J/kg and SB-LIs of -9 to -10 all the way back into central and east
central MO.  Expect that outflows from the storms up north will
propagate southward which will provide triggers for further
development.  Storms could form into clusters or perhaps even a
broken line before dissipating this evening, most likely somewhere
near or just south of the Missouri River.  There may be some patchy
fog late tonight in any areas that receive rain this evening, but
have left mention out for now due to the potentially patchy nature
of the rain.  Temperatures tonight should be similar to what we
experienced last night so used a blend of guidance and persistence
for lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

The current pattern we are in will continue relatively unaltered
through late Thursday, with a flat west-east mid-level flow and
periodic effects from upper level disturbances or MCVs.  This
alludes to a continuation of our unsettled wx and TSRA chances thru
much of this period, only being limited when available moisture
becomes a factor, or enhanced when a clear focus can be seen.

Rich atmospheric moisture will continue in place over our region
into Monday night, with PWs in excess of 1.5", tailing off a bit on
Tuesday and Wednesday, and returning for Thursday.

With that in mind, a similar setup will be found Sunday that we have
had the past few days for most locations, with weak boundaries, very
weak CINH and hi instability during the peak heating times, which
then fade with sunset.  Some enhanced PoPs were maintained in
northeast MO for late afternoon with influences from the southern
periphery of the MCV du jour which is expected to be centered in IA
at that time, but by and large, the convection looks to be pretty
random, forming where enough local convergence can occur to initiate
and will be hard to detect until we get closer.

Better chances for SHRA/TSRA are expected on Monday and Monday night
with a more significant shortwave TROF that will pass into this
convectively favorable atmosphere--and went likely PoPs as a result.

Tuesday and Wednesday, at this time, look to be a couple of dry days
for most areas, but an intrusion from a strong enough upper level
disturbance would change that.

Rain chances return for a widespread area on Thursday with the
return of rich and deep moisture and another upper level shortwave.

A deep and amplified upper TROF is then expected to dig into the
western CONUS for the end of the week.  The models diverge on what
this means for our area, but they do agree on rising heights and
upper ridging returning, but aren't as sure on if that will be
accompanied by upper level disturbances or not.  At this point, felt
prudent to fall back to climo PoPs in most places given the model
impasse.

Temps will remain relatively unchanged the next seven days with
temps at or a bit above normal, with Monday looking like the only
day where some areas may see below normal temps depending on how
fast the clouds and rain move in.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

Broken line of convection extending from PPQ sw through COU will
move southeastward into the St Louis metro area this evening, from
about 01Z to 03Z Sunday. Could not rule out isolated showers/storms
impacting UIN and COU early this evening, but it appears that most
of the convection should be southeast of UIN and COU by 00Z
Sunday. After the convection weakens and shifts southeast of the
taf sites late this evening there should only be high level
convective debris cloudiness. There may be some fog late
tonight/early Sunday morning due to recent rainfall and light
surface winds. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late
Sunday morning and afternoon with at least widely scattered
showers/storms expected Sunday afternoon. Surface winds should be
mainly s-swly on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: The broken line of convection should move
through STL around 01-03Z this evening. After this mainly just high
level clouds along with light winds for the remainder of the
night. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Sunday
morning and afternoon with at least widely scattered
showers/storms Sunday afternoon into the evening. Light surface
wind will become swly Sunday afternoon, then weaken again Sunday
evening.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-221200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME
STORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE
WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY UNTIL LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
ALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...IF
OBSERVED...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             4 SE MEXICO             39.13N  91.82W
06/21/2014  M1.00 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S VERSAILLES          39.85N  90.66W
06/21/2014  M2.70 INCH       BROWN              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WITHIN THE PAST 1.5 HRS

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
508 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MEXICO             39.15N  91.84W
06/21/2014                   AUDRAIN            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS 50 MPH... NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN UP
            TO 1 INCH DIA

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW FULTON             38.93N  92.05W
06/21/2014                   CALLAWAY           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON CNTY RD 230 BETWEEN FULTON AND MILLERSBURG...2 POWER
            LINE POLES SNAPPED AND ALUMINUM BARN BLOWN OVER

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSFIELD              39.61N  90.81W
06/21/2014                   PIKE               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES
            AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS TOWN.

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE MONTGOMERY CITY    38.99N  91.49W
06/21/2014                   MONTGOMERY         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 TO 8 INCH BRANCHES DOWN

&&

MILLER