Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL
RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA...BUT FALSE ECHOES IN THE FORM OF CHAFF ARE COVERING
THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE TO IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS.
SURFACE WISE...A NEBULOUS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE (SURFACE-500 MB)
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SLIDING WESTWARD INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND BECOMING STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL MOISTENING OCCURS THEREAFTER. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL
MAINTAIN DIME POPS TONIGHT AND NICKLE POPS IN THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...MESOSCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINES AND
ACTIVITY TRACKING OFF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL PROVIDE 20
TO 30 PERCENT POP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...THE HEAT GOES ON WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT...LENGHTY...ALBEIT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE LYING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS
PINCH OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...MESOSCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF
CLOUD LINES AND CELLS POSSIBLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD OFF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND WILL PROMPT LOW CHANCE POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...TYPICAL HIGHS NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 80 OUTSIDE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING MOSTLY EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS EXCEPT 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. HENCE...NO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z/23RD...THE CLOUD LINE HAS STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON...YET WE
STILL FEEL A LATE AFTERNOON LINE WILL MATURE. EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS AND VIS WITHIN PRECIPITATION...AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 25 KNOTS. A GENERAL CLEARING TREND WILL INITIATE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES BLEED INTO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 89  82  89 / 10 - 20 20
MARATHON  79 91  80  91 / 10 - 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE........................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/DATA ACQUISITION...CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-241000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND BUTTONWOOD
SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT AND
BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT TO
THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD IS CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL
AS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
624 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

FLZ078-232330-
MONROE LOWER KEYS FL-
624 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER KEYS IN
MONROE COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES NORTH OF UPPER
SUGARLOAF KEY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NILES CHANNEL BRIDGE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY...SUMMERLAND KEY...
CUDJOE KEY...BIG TORCH KEY...SUGARLOAF KEY...BAY POINT...SHARK KEY
AND BOCA CHICA THROUGH 730 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO
QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED BUILDING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN KEY WEST DIRECTLY AT 3 0 5...2 9 6...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

JOHNSON