Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Indianapolis, IN

504 
WGUS73 KIND 242226
FFSIND

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

INC057-095-159-242241-
/O.EXP.KIND.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-140624T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON-MADISON-TIPTON-
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTIES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4038 8569 4000 8587 4002 8612 4038 8586

$$

JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL INTERACT WITH THE VARIOUS FRONTS AND UPPER WAVES
AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
NEAR 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN
AREA OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE
DAY HASN/T CHANGED MUCH. ADDED LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE
FORECAST TO GO ALONG WITH IT/S MENTION IN ALL OTHER PRODUCTS...AS
AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND HAS ALSO BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS PRODUCT TO GO ALONG WITH
ALL THE THINGS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THAT
FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF AND
THEIR MEANS LOOKING GOOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES
ALONG THE FRONT. BY 00Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. MEANWHILE...A
MODEST 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER CAPES TO 1500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. 20 KNOT SURFACE TO 700
MILLIBAR SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE PER THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...AND HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN AS LOCALIZED HEAVY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. WILL MENTION ALL THESE THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER STORY.

WENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS AROUND. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO
AS COOL AS THE 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TO THE
SHORT TERM WITH A CONTINUED GFS AND EURO BLEND ALONG WITH THEIR
MEANS PREFERRED.

THE STORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DIES OUT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES COULD SPARK A FEW MORE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECOND FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING.

SIMILAR 00Z MOS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S LOOK GOOD FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEING A
POSSIBLE SOURCE FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION.  SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER
THE AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW...LATEST INITIALIZATION COVERS THE FORECAST PERIOD WELL WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WILL NOT DIVERT AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SO MUCH INCONSISTENCY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST WEEK.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL START OFF CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 80S...AND THEN SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEING A
POSSIBLE SOURCE FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION.  SUNDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER
THE AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW...LATEST INITIALIZATION COVERS THE FORECAST PERIOD WELL WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WILL NOT DIVERT AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SO MUCH INCONSISTENCY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST WEEK.
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL START OFF CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 80S...AND THEN SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KIND IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
VORT. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KBMG AND KIND WILL
BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AND LOWER
RESTRICTIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. LESSER IMPACTS AT BOTH
KHUF AND KLAF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ENDING AT BOTH SITES AFTER 20Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION THROUGH MID EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W/NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THIS EVENING.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH PRECIP AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING AWAY
TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOTH KBMG AND KIND LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED MORE BY LOW STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME WHILE FOG CONCERNS WILL BE THE GREATER CONCERN AT KLAF WITH
A COMBINATION OF THE TWO AT KHUF. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES UNDER 1SM
AT KLAF WITH PREDOMINANT 3-4SM AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY WITH REMNANT STRATUS/FOG BURNING OFF
BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-251000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
440 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HAZARDS: DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

TIMING: DANGEROUS LIGHTING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO TELL
IF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT. HOWEVER...DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND A WARM...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
102 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

INZ045-053-054-241745-
MORGAN-OWEN-PUTNAM-
102 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF SPENCER...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH MAY CAUSE SMALL TO BLOW AROUND AND SMALL TREE
LIMBS TO BREAK. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITY FOR DRIVERS AND CAUSE
BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

DRT