Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Lincoln, IL

895 
WGUS73 KILX 290325
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ILC107-125-129-290341-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140829T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOGAN IL-MASON IL-MENARD IL-
1025 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MENARD...
SOUTHEASTERN MASON AND WEST CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4019 8955 4006 8947 3990 8991 3990 8998
      4004 9000 4011 9000

$$

BAK

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

18z/1pm surface map shows warm front extending from northern
Missouri into western Kentucky.  Aloft...vigorous upper-level low is
evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Colorado/western Kansas.
Large cluster of showers/storms associated with the low developed
along the front across Iowa last night and has since weakened as it
lifted northeastward into drier air over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes.  Convection is still ongoing along outflow boundary from
eastern Iowa into northern Missouri: however, most of this will
remain W/NW of the KILX CWA late this afternoon into the early
evening.  Meanwhile, scattered convection is firing further south
along the front across western Kentucky and this is expected to
develop further north into central Illinois over the next couple of
hours.  HRRR has had a good handle on the convection and have
followed its solution closely for the immediate short-term.  Have
therefore gone with scattered showers/thunder across all but the far
NE CWA around Champaign and Danville this afternoon into the
evening.  Think convection will be diurnally driven and will
dissipate shortly after sunset.

As upper low slowly approaches from the west, corresponding
downstream ridging will help push the warm front northward tonight
into Friday.  With strongest upper support remaining west of
Illinois through the day, think convection will once again only be
scattered in nature and primarily occur during peak heating.  Have
therefore gone with a mostly dry forecast during the morning,
followed by chance PoPs during the afternoon.  Best rain chances
will be focused closer to the frontal boundary across the northern
two-thirds of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be held
down a bit by clouds/precip, but will still rise well into the 80s,
with locations along/south of I-70 perhaps hitting the 90-degree
mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper wave currently over the Rockies expected to slowly move out
and bring rain chances to the area, particularly Friday night and
Saturday as the upper trof moves through the Midwest.  Keeping the
precip around on Saturday may result in slightly cooler temperatures
by the afternoon.  Once again, the cold front associated with the
upper trof moves across the region, losing its distinct baroclinic
zone and becoming more diffuse as it slows considerably just to the
southeast near the Ohio River Valley.  The remaining boundary will
keep pops around for the areas in the southeastern portions of the
state through the remains of the weekend until another larger trof
moves across the country bringing more widespread rain and thunder
for Sunday night into Monday. Signif differences between the ECMWF
and the GFS with the GFS being weaker with the boundary and leaving
a more stationary focus for prolonged showers...whereas the ECMWF is
more progressive and dries out the region on Tuesday.   At this
point, the ECMWF builds a weak upper ridge into the Midwest and the
GFS stays more active.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The new 00Z TAF valid time is expected to be much like the past
couple. Predominantly VFR/quiet weather conditions are expected.
However, scattered, mainly diurnally driven showers/storms are
possible. As such, it is difficult to pinpoint precipitation until
it is closer to arrival time. So, have limited most mention to
VCTS during the day (aside from a few TEMPOs in the first 6 hours
based on radar trends. Storms, if they impact a terminal, may
briefly reduce cigs/vsbys to MVFR or lower.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-291100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-291100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
DECATUR TO ROBINSON LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER RISK AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ESE NEW HOLLAND         40.18N 89.58W
08/28/2014  M2.07 INCH       LOGAN              IL   COCORAHS

            RECEIVED 2.07 INCHES IN JUST 50 MIN

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
800 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PETERSBURG              40.01N 89.85W
08/28/2014  M1.73 INCH       MENARD             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.73 INCHES IN 45 MIN ACCORDING TO AUTOMATED GAUGE.

&&

ALW