Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1109 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.MORNING UPDATE...
A MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY... WITH
3000-3600 J/KG OF CAPE EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (1.6+ PW'S)... SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE WNW
FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS...
ONE ACROSS NORTH GA AND ANOTHER NEAR A CSG TO MCN LINE... WILL ALL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT THE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH GA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS THAT WOULD TRACK SSE
AND POSSIBLY PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH NEAR A CSG TO MCN LINE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS... AND THESE STORMS MAY PUSH SSE AND AWAY FROM CSG AND MCN...
BUT STILL WOULD NOT LET MY GUARD DOWN ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH CAPE VALUES AND 1.6+ PW'S...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TODAY... WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THAT COULD DOWN SEVERAL TREES...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN SOME BRIEF STREET FLOODING... CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. OTHERWISE...
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 90S. /39

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT
WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY GET PUSHED INTO
NORTH GA WITH SOME DRIER DEW POINTS INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINLY FOR SUNDAY. STILL MAINLY A DIURNAL PATTERN ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND NORTHWEST GA THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR NORTH GA ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HAVE
COMPROMISED BY ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH SUNDAY WITH CHANCE
POPS CENTRAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD PERSIST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

41

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014/
THE CHANGE TO AN UNSETTLED WET SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WNW AND THEN WSW THAT WILL ALLOW SHORT
WAVES TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LONG TERM. AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAY TIME INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
FOR A FLAIR UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THEY SEEMED TO
BETTER REFLECT THE METEOROLOGY...BETTER THAN THE TOO LOW MOS POPS.
THIS ROUGHLY TRANSLATES TO POPS OF 50-90 PERCENT DURING THE DAY TIME
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED...LESSENING OR DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT TIME
PERIODS BUT NOT NECESSARILY ENDING.

DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
AND THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT TIME
LOWS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR...HOWEVER WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS BKN040-050 DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
AROUND 14Z. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  72 /  30  20  20  20
ATLANTA         92  72  92  73 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  88  66 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  90  70 /  30  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        95  73  96  74 /  30  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     89  70  90  71 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           95  70  95  72 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            91  68  91  69 /  40  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  68  92  69 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         95  72  95  73 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1249 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

GAZ044-053-054-211715-
1249 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN COWETA...FAYETTE AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PALMETTO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS COWETA...FAYETTE AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL
COUNTRY...FAIRBURN...MADRAS...PALMETTO...UNION CITY...CANNONGATE...
SANDY CREEK...THOMAS CROSSROADS...TYRONE...FAYETTEVILLE...INMAN...
PEACHTREE CITY...TURIN AND SHARPSBURG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8458 3344 8439 3343 8440 3341 8439
      3338 8439 3337 8440 3328 8465 3354 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 316DEG 18KT 3353 8466

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

GAZ058-059-071-072-211745-
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE...JONES...BUTTS AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER INDIAN SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MONROE...JONES...BUTTS AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLOUNT...HIGH
FALLS STATE PARK...STARK...MCKIBBEN...INDIAN SPRINGS STATE PARK...
FLOVILLA...JACKSON...BERNER...MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS...JULIETTE...
PLANT SCHERER...ADGATEVILLE...JARRELL PLANTATION...ROUND OAK AND
DAMES FERRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8405 3320 8404 3320 8408 3322 8410
      3337 8399 3315 8350 3293 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 301DEG 20KT 3323 8393