Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

779 
WWUS53 KEAX 201040
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

KSC005-103-MOC165-201100-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140220T1100Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-ATCHISON KS-PLATTE MO-
440 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PLATTE...SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 AM CST...

AT 436 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EASTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTON...LOWEMONT...IATAN AND BEAN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9480 3926 9509 3929 9516 3953 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 221DEG 23KT 3934 9507

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

Main focus of the forecast today is the weather over the next 24
hours as a late winter/early spring like system sweeps through the
region.

Tonight through Thursday: A multiphase late winter storm system will
affect the region through the next 24 hours. Current model and
satellite data show a rapidly amplifying trough moving into the
Great Basin this afternoon. This trough will quickly shift east
over the next 24 hours and will be responsible for our precipitable
weather as we develop warm air advection activity ahead of it, and
potentially a post frontal deformation snowfall. Warm air advection
has already begun as storms have quickly developed and spread into
far western Missouri during the mid-afternoon hours. This will
result in ongoing showers over parts of the forecast area by the
late afternoon hours. Later tonight the low level jet will intensify
and advect sufficient moisture north aloft to induce some elevated
instability to the region. Mid-afternoon SPC meso-analysis is
already showing MUCAPE values of 250 J/KG having moved north into
central Kansas this afternoon. Models for late tonight advertise
MUCAPE values of 1000+ J/KG juxtaposed with 0-6KM shear values of 60
knots, however model soundings continue to show a strong inversion
in place at the surface thanks to the cool boundary layer, so
expectations remain that storms this evening into the overnight
hours will be elevated in nature, which should limit severe threats
to severe hail (around one inch) and locally strong and gusty winds.

By sunrise Thursday morning convective elements of the storm should
begin to fade, though some models keep some limited elevated CAPE
across central to northeast Missouri through the morning hours. Of
more importance will be the strong winds and potential for snow
following behind the cold front that will sweep through Thursday
morning. GFS/ECMWF/GEM have persisted in their agreement to focus
the snowfall across extreme northeast Kansas into far northwest
Missouri starting around sunrise Thursday morning while the NAM
remains the outlier, bringing in higher totals farther east and
south. Have opted to continued to side with the broad consensus of
the models, limiting snow accumulation to the far northwest corner.
Snow accumulation in northwest Missouri will be complicated by
surface temperatures which will likely struggle to drop below
freezing. A verity of models advertise a non-diurnal temperature
curve for Thursday, but model output still does not indicate
sub-freezing surface temperatures will move in till after the end of
precipitation. Accompanying the potential snowfall Thursday will be
strong Northwest winds that will sweep in behind the front. Rapid
pressure rises behind the front point at strong winds of 20 to 30
MPH gusting to near 40 MPH through the afternoon hours. Have opted
to combine the threat of wind and limited snow accumulation and
issues a winter weather advisory for the far northwest corner of the
forecast area from 6 AM Thursday through 3 PM, roughly outlining the
time period snow is expected to fall in. The winter weather advisory
is in lieu of a Wind Advisory which still might be needed across a
broader swath of the forecast region, but I will leave that to the
overnight shift to look at.

Lastly for Thursday...precipitation totals across areas from
central to north central and northeast Missouri may pick up around
one inch of rain overnight and through the day Thursday. Recent snow
melt has already been noted on a few stream and creeks in those
areas, so an additional inch of water could quickly put some of them
into flood Thursday. Have issued a Flood Watch from midnight through
6 PM Thursday to cover this potential.

Friday through the rest of the forecast...Despite the cold front
moving through Thursday temperatures Friday will remain above
freezing with a quick return of southerly winds. However,
temperatures will slowly fall through the weekend with afternoon
highs around freezing by the beginning of the next work week.
Additionally, our next chance at precipitation might arrive Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

Scattered showers and occasional, isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the night across most of the region ahead of a
northeastward moving warm front. As the warm front approaches between
10z-12z Thursday, another round of more robust thunderstorms are
possible, especially along and north of Interstate 70. South of the
front, IFR to LIFR stratus and some light fog are expected to spread
into the TAF sites between 12z-16z. After 16z, a cold front will
sweep through the area from west to east, bringing strong northwest
winds, IFR to LIFR stratus, and scattered light showers, possibly
mixing with or changing over to snow in northwest and far northern
Missouri. Blowing snow with briefly reduced visibility is possible
across far northwest Missouri during the early afternoon hours, but
should stay north of all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday FOR
     KSZ025-102.

MO...FLOOD WATCH through Thursday afternoon FOR MOZ006>008-015>017-
     023>025-031>033-039-040-046.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday FOR
     MOZ001>005-011>013-020.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-210115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
701 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

KSZ103-104-201030-
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-
356 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE AND
SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

AT 353 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWRENCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TONGANOXIE...BONNER SPRINGS...BASEHOR...LINWOOD...RENO AND JARBALO.

THIS WILL IMPACT

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3916 9519 3926 9506 3907 9481 3906 9483
      3906 9488 3903 9489 3899 9498 3900 9502
      3898 9503 3898 9508 3895 9508 3898 9516
      3896 9517 3896 9519 3911 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 232DEG 28KT 3900 9522

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
420 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     HAIL             4 W JARBALO             39.20N 95.14W
02/20/2014  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&