Wind Chill Warning 2, NWS Detroit, MI

402 
WWUS43 KDTX 271444
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
944 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING..

.FRESH ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER EPISODE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STEADY WIND
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
REMAINING 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272115-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140127T1700Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0002.140127T1700Z-140129T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
944 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...FALLING
   QUICKLY BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING.

 * THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A STEADY WIND OF 10 TO 15
   MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL CONDITIONS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
   THIS AFTERNOON.

 * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
   TONIGHT. THESE LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

 * TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES REMAINING 15
   TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

 * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
   FROSTBITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
   THESE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

427 
WWUS43 KDTX 271616
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1116 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING..

.FRESH ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER EPISODE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STEADY WIND
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS REMAINING 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280200-
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0002.140127T1700Z-140129T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
1116 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...FALLING 
   QUICKLY BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING. 

 * THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A STEADY WIND OF 10 TO 15 
   MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL CONDITIONS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO 
   THIS AFTERNOON. 

 * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW 
   ZERO TONIGHT. THESE LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL CONTINUE 
   INTO THE LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
   REMAINING 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

IMPACTS...

 * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE 
   FROSTBITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO 
   THESE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR 
   DEATH. 

* A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

739 
WWUS43 KDTX 280325
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1025 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING..

.ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON WESTERLY WIND.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS AND THE ASSOCIATED
WIND PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO LOWS OF 5
TO 15 BELOW ZERO...COMBINED WITH 5 TO 15 MPH WIND...WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO RANGE. BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS REMAINING 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-281130-
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140129T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
1025 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TOWARD MINIMUM
   VALUES OF 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. 

 * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
   TONIGHT UNDER A 5 TO 15 MPH WIND. THESE BITTERLY COLD WIND
   CHILL READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

 * TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS 
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES 
   REMAINING 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. 

IMPACTS...

 * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
   FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
   THESE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH.

 * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR 
   AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL 
   VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO 
   HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. 
   VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV

&&

$$

BT

154 
WWUS43 KDTX 280837
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING..

.VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DOME
OF ARCTIC AIR IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD
TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL STILL
LEAD TO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-281700-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WC.Y.0006.140128T1700Z-140129T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140128T1700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
337 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
   ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 8 TO 15 MPH
   WILL HOLD WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW
   ZERO DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

 * TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON.
   SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH...LEADING TO WIND
   CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

 * TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
   REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...SO WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 25
   DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.  

IMPACTS...

 * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE 
   FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO 
   THESE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR 
   DEATH. 

 * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR 
   AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL 
   VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO 
   HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV 

 * A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG 
   WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL 
   RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS 
   ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU 
   WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

951 
WWUS43 KDTX 281656
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING..

.VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
DOME OF ARCTIC AIR IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD
TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL STILL
LEAD TO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-290100-
/O.EXP.KDTX.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140128T1700Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.WC.Y.0006.140128T1700Z-140129T1500Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
1156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

THE WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH...LEADING TO 
   WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL 
   REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...SO WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 
   25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. 

IMPACTS...

 * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE 
   FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO 
   THESE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR 
   DEATH. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG
   WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL
   RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE
   NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A
   HAT AND GLOVES.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1211 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. A FEW POCKETS OF SHOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW POST FRONT BUT WILL FADE AS COLDER BUT MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE COLD PUSH WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
THEN SETTLE BACK JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILING WILL
RECOVER TO LOW END VFR DUE TO THE COLD AND DRY NATURE OF THE AIR AND
THEN SCATTER DURING MONDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW... SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH DTW BY 07Z/2AM. A QUICK BURST OF ACTIVITY WILL AMOUNT TO
ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE EXITING THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM 280 THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 847 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014/

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE ADJUSTED FORWARD THE MOST LIKELY TIME WINDOW
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR
COMPOSITE, AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A GOOD COMBINATION
OF UPPER SUPPORT FUELING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK BURST
OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN WITH A
BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT. THE FAST PACE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR LESS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EYE-CATCHING IN THAT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A
DISTINCT VERTICAL MOTION COUPLET WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ENHANCED COLD CLOUD TOPS, INDICATIVE
OF AN ORGANIZED VERTICAL MOTION FIELD, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CHANNELED DCVA PATTERN AND WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS TELL THE REST OF THE STORY WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
STEEP FRONTAL ZONE/LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER THAT WILL QUICKLY EXIT SE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, COLD ADVECTION AND
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN THE WELL MIXED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD 30 MPH. THIS, COMBINED WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE WIND CHILL DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
RANGE BY SUNRISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PACE OF TEMPERATURE
FALL WILL BE MONITORED FOR FASTER TRENDS THAT COULD POINT TO
FASTER ONSET OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE CENTROID OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH/LOW GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL COMPLETE ITS WESTWARD TRANSITION TO THE TROUGH
AXIS NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. CURRENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS BEING SUSTAINED BY AN INCREASE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
APPROACHING THETAE RIDGE AXIS AND NOT BY ANY STEEPENING FRONTAL
SLOPE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 21-00Z WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF DETROIT METRO AREA TO THE EASTERN SHORELINE AREAS
OF THE THUMB. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT A FAIRLY DEEP (5000 FT)
ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXISTS AT -15C. THIS SEEMS TO BE CONTRIBUTING
MIGHTILY TO THE SNOWFLAKE SIZE...WHICH COULD ALLOW A DUSTING OR
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE DIGGING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE INROADS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY
6Z TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE INBOUND ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO KICK OUT ANY DELICATE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE STRUCTURE STILL
HANGING OUT IN THE AGGREGATE OF THE LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND...FAVOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...TIMING OF THE
ECMWF-GFS BLEND OVER THE NAM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECASTED TO DEVELOP POSTFRONTALLY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN ADDITION
TO SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE SUPPORTS ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE ISSUE IS DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SHORT...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS OR LESS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS DOWN
THE COLUMN POTENTIALLY DOWN TO 2500 FT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY .5 INCH OR LESS.

THE NEAR TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR WILL BE WHAT SORT OF BLOWING SNOW
COMPONENT CAN GET GOING LATE TONIGHT. VARIOUS LOOKS AT MODEL
PARAMETERS SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY WINDGUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POST FRONTALLY. WITH FRESH POWDER TODAY...THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME HAMPERED BY BLOWING SNOW. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS BY INSERTING A MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
IN THE FORECAST. WILL ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AS THIS IS
MORE OF A NEAR TERM/NOWCAST TYPE CALL. REGARDLESS OF THE HEADLINE
DECISION...MORNING COMMUTE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY TO
EXTREMELY POOR. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME COLD...RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 12 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY BUS TIME TOMORROW MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LOW FIRMLY POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF ARCTIC ORIGIN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD.  SE MICHIGAN WILL LAND WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE
NEXT ARCTIC WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ON
MONDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE A SIZABLE PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITHIN THE RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.   THE STRENGTH OF THIS ADVECTION AND THE OVERALL TIMING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN EARLY DAY HIGH TEMPERATURE...WITH READINGS
LOCKED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE AFTERNOON.  A STEADY 15 KNOT
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A WIND CHILL WITHIN THE -10 TO -15 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  A DRYING AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT FAVORED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY WILL LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE DAY.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO SUPPORT SOME EASTWARD PENETRATION OF THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.   THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE BACKGROUND FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.  THIS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS FOR A PERIOD /21Z-03Z/ MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE I-94 TO I-69 CORRIDOR.  ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WILL BE
RESTRICTED BY THE LESS FAVORABLE CLOUD MICROPHYSICS /SATURATED LAYER
WELL BELOW -20C/.

THIS NEXT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TAKES A FIRM HOLD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  COLDEST ENVIRONMENT WILL CENTER
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE ARCTIC
THERMAL TROUGH /850 MB TEMPS -25F OR COLDER/ EASES THROUGH.  THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF -10F AREAWIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS TUESDAY MID SINGLE DIGITS AT BEST.   A STEADY PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUSTAINED BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A SPRAWLING ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A SOLID 10 KNOT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT LOCALLY THROUGH THIS TIME.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -30 TO -35
DEGREES.  IN LIGHT OF THIS..WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WITH A WATCH
HEADLINE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A GRADUAL EASTWARD RELEASE OF THIS AIRMASS BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE RESPONDS TO AN INCREASING UPPER HEIGHT FIELD AND
STEADY LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.  THE NEXT ARCTIC WAVE FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST WILL CLOSE OFF AND REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS
THE MAIN UPPER JET SUPPORT REPOSITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF MAIN HEIGHT FALLS WILL WORK ACROSS SE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  A PROGRESSIVE ATTENDANT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INTRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY.  CORE
OF THIS ARCTIC SURGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.

MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING EAST OF LAKE HURON.  THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.  STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS
DURING THIS TIME.  IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...WIND CHILL WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
330 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
330 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-272030-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
330 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAKE HURON FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
951 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-270445-
SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-
MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
951 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE...

WEATHER...

 * A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
   LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
   LINE FROM OWOSSO TO PORT SANILAC...INCLUDING METRO DETROIT.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS IMPACTED
   BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM TONIGHT...MOST OCCURRING OVER ABOUT A 2
   HOUR PERIOD.

 * WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH... INCREASING TO
   30 MPH GUSTS LATE.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 23 AND 28 DEGREES...AND
   THEN FALL RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES 5
   BELOW TO 15 BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES WILL BE ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE TO
   HEAVY SNOW. RAPID FLUCTUATIONS OF VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY DUE TO
   SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

 * ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
   ROADS PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
   RESULT IN LOCALIZED SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE TRAFFIC
   RATES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1204 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     SNOW             HOWELL                  42.61N 83.94W
01/26/2014  M2.4 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 HOUR TOTAL

1159 PM     SNOW             4 E WHITE LAKE          42.65N 83.43W
01/26/2014  M2.1 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            3 HOUR TOTAL

1159 PM     SNOW             SW FLINT                43.02N 83.69W
01/26/2014  M0.6 INCH        GENESEE            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            3 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
221 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     SNOW             4 E WHITE LAKE          42.65N 83.43W
01/27/2014  M2.8 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0100 AM     SNOW             ROMULUS                 42.22N 83.37W
01/27/2014  M2.4 INCH        WAYNE              MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL TAKEN AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT.

0100 AM     SNOW             FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
01/27/2014  M1.0 INCH        GENESEE            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0200 AM     SNOW             ANN ARBOR               42.28N 83.73W
01/27/2014  M2.8 INCH        WASHTENAW          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

&&

DKOOK