Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

We are monitoring the short-fuse trends in visible satellite,
observations, and radar and are expecting numerous thunderstorms
to develop by as early as 1830 or 1900 UTC. There is little
capping in the atmosphere this afternoon, so the little bit of
insolation we have seen has allowed temperatures to rise to around
80...with ample moisture in place (dewpoints in the lower to mid
60s). 1700 UTC surface analysis revealed a weak surface boundary
just south of Dodge City which appears to be the focus for the
first storms showing up on radar as of 1745 UTC. These mid to late
afternoon thunderstorms will only be the first round of what will
appear to be multiple rounds of convection...the last of which
being the most organized coming out of eastern Colorado.
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain can be expected given the
moisture-laden lower-mid troposphere. This evening's MCS will most
likely clear the southwest Kansas region by 06Z or so early
Saturday morning, however additional storms may continue to thrive
near the Oklahoma border, so we will maintain chance POPs between
Highway 50 and the Oklahoma border through midday Saturday.
Saturday's organized MCS activity will likely stay to the south,
though.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

This weekend the upper jet will sag southward, moving slightly
cyclonically through the southern Rockies. To the north, a very weak
trough axis/shear zone will move toward the western Plains through
the end of the weekend.  Easterly upslope surface flow is expected
across the area with numerical model solutions supporting convective
development over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico,
implying decent chances for severe convection, or at least periods
of decaying MCS' over far southwest Kansas, with lower chances to
the northeast Saturday night into early Sunday.

The upper trough will intensify across Kansas Sunday night to the
point of developing a closed 700 mb low, which is fairly well agreed
upon by both the GFS and ECMWF. Strongest 850 mb moisture transport
and highest theta-e appears relegated to the Southern Plains region,
so the magnitude of any severe threat may be limited to hail storms
given a lack of strong CAPE values, unless timing becomes more of an
issue and the wave is slower than models forecast, arriving later after
a more significant diurnal destabilization.

A brief respite will is likely with respect to convective activity as
subsident flow develops into Tuesday. After Tuesday, the models hint
at another setup conducive to severe local supercell storms and MCS
development, especially by late Wednesday and Thursday with the
possibility for southeast moist surface flow and upper shortwave
energy. An uptick in temperatures is also expected through the
middle of the week toward more seasonal or slightly warmer than
normal highs in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in areal coverage as they
move east across western Kansas early tonight. Will use the latest
HRRR, ARW, and NMM for timing of the steadier and heavier rainfall
at the GCK, DDC, and HYS airport between 00z and 06z. MVFR cigs
and IFR visibilities are expected with the heavy rainfall early
tonight. A moist easterly upslope flow then will develop after
midnight and based on NAM BUFR soundings a period of IFR
conditions will be possible between 09z and 15z due to status and
fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  78  56  71 /  90  50  40  30
GCK  62  76  56  70 /  80  30  40  30
EHA  62  78  55  69 /  90  40  50  30
LBL  63  79  58  72 /  90  50  50  30
HYS  62  77  56  69 /  70  40  20  30
P28  66  81  61  74 /  80  60  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
153 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014 /1253 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MID MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL FALL GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE SPORADIC
THUNDERSTORMS. SECONDARY THREATS ARE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...BUT PROBABLY SMALLER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCUPY THE REST OF THE SPACE-TIME
CONTINUUM OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST OUTLOOK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY HAIL...OR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TORNADO          5 W DEERFIELD           37.99N 101.22W
06/06/2014                   KEARNY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TORNADO          2 N DEERFIELD           38.01N 101.13W
06/06/2014                   KEARNY             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE SIGHTINGS, MOVING EAST.

&&

MRUSSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

KSZ061>063-074>076-085-086-070045-
FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
704 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN
STANTON...NORTHERN STEVENS...NORTHWESTERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHERN KEARNY AND SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY COUNTIES...

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF
ULYSSES TO HICKOK TO 7 MILES NORTH OF HUGOTON...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3784 10090 3749 10073 3717 10082 3717 10145
      3747 10154 3784 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 265DEG 39KT 3776 10135 3750 10121
          3727 10127

WAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TORNADO          W DEERFIELD             37.98N 101.14W
06/06/2014                   KEARNY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED BRIEF SMALL CONE TORNADO LESS THAN ONE
            MILE WEST OF DEERFIELD.

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ULYSSES                 37.58N 101.36W
06/06/2014                   GRANT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF ULYSSES.

&&

RBURG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
749 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

KSZ074>076-084>086-070130-
GRANT-HASKELL-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
749 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...MORTON...SEWARD...
SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...STANTON AND STEVENS COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF MOSCOW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3773 10205 3774 10131 3739 10110 3737 10065
      3700 10065 3699 10203 3706 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 249DEG 33KT 3735 10136

WAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
758 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

KSZ076>078-086>088-070145-
CLARK-FORD-GRAY-HASKELL-MEADE-SEWARD-
758 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SEWARD...MEADE...
SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...SOUTHERN GRAY...SOUTHWESTERN FORD AND WESTERN
CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
COPELAND TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAYNE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3750 10065 3759 9981 3699 9992 3700 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 275DEG 31KT 3745 10056 3700 10073

WAH