Tornado Warning 16, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AT AND
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ALONG THE MASON DIXON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS EXTENDING THROUGH THE LAURELS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO ALREADY MIXED
AIR...AND WE ARE OUT OF MAX HEATING...ANY STORMS WILL BE WEAK TO
MARGINAL. THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR WHICH HAS AFFECTED
INTENSIFICATION. STORMS HAVE TRAINED IN SOUTHEASTERN PA...WHICH
HAS CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THOUGH WATERS SHOULD
RECEDE QUICKLY...ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS COULD CAUSE CONCERN.

EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE COUNTIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT...AS COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS...AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. A MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE DAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BRING AN
ENJOYABLE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES PASSES NORTH OF PA.
MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT DROPPING SE THIS AFT WILL BRING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR TO THE AREA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE WILL
MAKE IT ON MONDAY INTO TUE...AS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SE LIFTS
NE. MID SHIFT HAD SOME CHC IN FOR MONDAY ALREADY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME.

THE BIG STORY IS THE COMPLEX LOW FOR THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK. THE 00Z 09/06 RUN HAS THIS SYSTEM TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER NW THAN THE EARLIER RUN. THUS TREND IS MOST LIKELY
FOR COLD AIR TO COME IN SLOWER...AND FIRST BATCH OF COLD AIR
NOT TO BE VERY DEEP. UPPER LVL TROUGH MAY TRY TO DEEPEN THE
COLD AIR MORE LATER IN THE WEEK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. ALSO
AS UPPER LVL SYSTEM SHEARS...HARD TO SEE MUCH ACTION OFF LAKES
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. KEPT VCTS TO IN ALL
TAFS EXCEPT KBFD FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FROPA MAY BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE COULD BRING REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM FOG POSS.
MON...PATCHY AM VALLEY FOG POSS.
TUE...CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WED...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THU...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/CERU
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-045-071815-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-071815-
FRANKLIN-
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ028-042-046-049>053-071815-
JUNIATA-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MOST SPOTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ056>059-063>066-071815-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
MOST SPOTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
458 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ036-064-062130-
FRANKLIN PA-ADAMS PA-
458 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 457 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WAYNESBORO TO NEAR FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD
HILLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WAYNESBORO...WAYNE HEIGHTS...MONT ALTO AND ROUZERVILLE AROUND 510
PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE QUINCY...STATE
LINE...WARRENTON AND PENN STATE MONT ALTO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.

LAT...LON 3972 7790 3982 7775 3985 7740 3972 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 279DEG 16KT 3978 7761 3971 7778

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ019-027-062200-
MIFFLIN PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
526 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SEVEN MOUNTAINS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING MILLS...SEVEN MOUNTAINS AND POTTERS MILLS AROUND 530 PM EDT.
  MILROY AND POE VALLEY STATE PARK AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  ALFARATA...BELLTOWN AND REEDS GAP STATE PARK AROUND 550 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SIGLERVILLE...WAGNER
AND TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI AREA.

LAT...LON 4072 7768 4072 7771 4075 7776 4087 7768
      4088 7732 4085 7737 4084 7736 4067 7735
      4066 7739 4065 7742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 279DEG 28KT 4076 7767

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ036-064-062200-
FRANKLIN PA-ADAMS PA-
529 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 529 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ROUZERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARROLL VALLEY AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  LAKE HERITAGE AROUND 600 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LIBERTY MOUNTAIN
RESORT AND FAIRFIELD.

LAT...LON 3979 7754 3980 7718 3972 7718 3972 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 271DEG 26KT 3973 7753

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ046-053-062200-
COLUMBIA PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
536 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 534 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAIRDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUGHESVILLE...ROHRSBURG...IOLA...EYERS GROVE...WALLER...
LAIRDSVILLE...CENTRAL...BIGGERTOWN...MILLVILLE...BENTON...PICTURE
ROCKS...STILLWATER AND CAMBRA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4112 7627 4107 7648 4113 7664 4115 7665
      4115 7668 4119 7677 4131 7672 4130 7655
      4128 7646 4129 7643 4128 7636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 281DEG 34KT 4121 7665

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
553 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ019-027-028-049-050-052-057-062230-
UNION PA-MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SNYDER PA-DAUPHIN PA-
553 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 552 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BELLTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BEAVER SPRINGS AND TROXELVILLE AROUND 610 PM EDT.
  TYRONE...MIDDLEBURG...RICHFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT MILLS...
PAXTONVILLE AND FREMONT AROUND 620 PM EDT.
  SELINSGROVE...KREAMER...PORT TREVORTON AND MEISERVILLE AROUND 630
PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SELINGSGROVE
AIRPORT...WAGNER...FREEBURG...NEW BERLIN...BEAVERTOWN...HERNDON AND
DALMATIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4055 7686 4057 7699 4059 7696 4063 7695
      4060 7702 4059 7710 4067 7752 4088 7745
      4091 7674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 276DEG 31KT 4077 7736

CERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
614 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

PAZ051-053-062300-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-
614 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING THE AREA...

AT 614 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BUCKHORN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCKHORN AROUND 620 PM EDT.
  BLOOMSBURG...CATAWISSA...FERNVILLE AND RUPERT AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  LIGHTSTREET AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  ALMEDIA AND MAINVILLE AROUND 650 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LIME RIDGE...
ORANGEVILLE...BRIAR CREEK...ESPY AND BLOOMSBURG UNIVERSITY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 226 AND 247.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7627 4093 7656 4094 7656 4094 7660
      4096 7662 4104 7662 4116 7629 4113 7628
      4114 7623 4104 7623 4095 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 263DEG 13KT 4099 7655

CERU