Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Cleveland, OH

177 
WWUS51 KCLE 182232
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

OHC093-103-182242-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140618T2230Z/
LORAIN OH-MEDINA OH-
632 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MEDINA AND SOUTHERN
LORAIN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4106 8218 4107 8234 4127 8235 4128 8233
      4134 8188 4108 8189 4099 8190 4099 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 267DEG 27KT 4109 8233

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE EAST OF LAKE HURON AND PROTRUDE INTO NORTHERN OHIO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. MIDDAY FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND DRAG THE STALLED FRONT WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QLCS IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN OHIO. EXPECT ARRIVAL INTO
THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND 18/21Z. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LUCAS...HANCOCK...AND WOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 19/01Z. THE
WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED EAST IF THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER.
ATTM THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME INDICATION IT WILL WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING RIPE FOR CONVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS HAVE GIVEN RISE TO AN
ACTIVE CU FIELD...INDICATIVE OF SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR RANGES
FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND
1.5 INCHES IN THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE SCRUBBED FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL POSSIBLY
THIS SATURDAY...EVEN THEN SOME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS.
A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEGUN TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF SEMI-PERMANENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS IT
TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN
MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60/S TO LOW 70/S THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
BOUTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY...HENCE THE RESOUNDING MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. BY LATE FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CARRY THE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON THE SCENARIO FOR THE SUN THRU
WED TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
POSSIBLE DRY WX FOR SUN INTO MON THEN MORE MOISTURE AND A GOOD
THREAT FOR RAIN LATER MON THRU WED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS FOR SUN THRU WED BUT BACK
DOWN THE POP SOME ON SUN DUE TO THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A DRY DAY.

THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SIDE BUT NO HOT
DAYS SEEM IN STORE THRU WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP INTO
THE EVENING AIDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
LAKE ERIE MAY LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR TSRA AT CLE AND ERI IF THE
STORMS ARE SCATTERED BUT IF THE COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT REACHES
WESTERN LAKE ERIE THEN THE STORMS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
CROSSING THE LAKE UNAFFECTED. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOP TONIGHT IN FOG AND
LOWER CIGS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY ALLOWING VARIABLE WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE NE AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THU. THE
FRONT SHOULD DRIFT BACK NORTH TO BE NEAR THE LAKE THRU THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THE MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE A STRONGER
LOW EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TO DRAG THE FRONT BACK SE OF THE LAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT THE TIMING DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS. IN ANY
CASE...WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE
TSRA THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE LAKE OFF AND ON OVER THE NEXT 4 OR 5
DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
504 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-192115-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
504 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ003-006-017-192115-
LUCAS-WOOD-HANCOCK-
504 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ142>148-162>168-192115-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
504 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LEZ061-149-169-PAZ001>003-192115-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
504 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
329 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             RAVENNA                 41.16N 81.24W
06/18/2014  E0.75 INCH       PORTAGE            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR 7 MINUTES.

&&

MITCHELL