Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Buffalo, NY

553 
WWUS51 KBUF 250315
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYC009-013-250325-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-141225T0330Z/
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-
1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4259 7823 4257 7900 4270 7889 4279 7886
      4310 7885 4326 7883 4339 7825 4337 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 229DEG 64KT 4324 7858 4292 7861

$$

NYC029-037-063-073-121-250330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-141225T0330Z/
GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EST
FOR ERIE...WESTERN ORLEANS...EASTERN NIAGARA...WESTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

AT 1015 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOCKPORT TO WEST SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  CLARENCE...
  LOCKPORT...
  WOLCOTTSVILLE...
  SHELBY...
  KNOWLESVILLE...

LAT...LON 4259 7823 4257 7900 4270 7889 4279 7886
      4310 7885 4326 7883 4339 7825 4337 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 229DEG 64KT 4324 7858 4292 7861

$$

RSH

979 
WWUS51 KBUF 250331
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1031 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYC029-037-063-073-121-250341-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-141225T0330Z/
GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-ERIE NY-
1031 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF ERIE...WESTERN 
ORLEANS...EASTERN NIAGARA...WESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN GENESEE 
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 1031 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4259 7823 4257 7900 4270 7889 4279 7886
      4310 7885 4326 7883 4339 7825 4337 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 229DEG 64KT 4324 7857 4292 7861

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
CHRISTMAS DAY AS IT WILL LIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A
RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW ANY LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SOME SNOW CHRISTMAS
DAY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY WILL EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN AS IT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
WESTERN QUEBEC FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THIS FEATURE BOMBS OUT...IT
WILL SWEEP ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK BETWEEN ROUGHLY 02Z AND 07Z TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE AREA...AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ANY THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING MANAGES TO DEVELOP...SHOULD ANY OF THIS CONVECTION BECOME
WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE NOT VERY FAR OFF THE DECK.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE
LINE OF COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND SHOULD SHARPLY INCREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS...AND
HELPS TO MIX HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...
WITH THIS PROCESS BEING FURTHER AIDED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES BY THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS. GIVEN THAT ANYWHERE FROM 45-60 KNOTS OF
WIND WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLY 1-2 KFT OFF THE DECK...FEEL THAT OUR
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH WARNING-CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS STILL APPEARING HIGHLY LIKELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
AND SOLID ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS EQUALLY LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THE
STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE TIME
OF FROPA RIGHT ON THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING...WHEN BOTH THE
WINDS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF CHRISTMAS DAY AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.

ONE OTHER NOTABLE CONSEQUENCE OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A SEICHE AND SUBSEQUENT LAKESHORE FLOODING AT THE
NORTHEAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH LAKESHORE
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED. FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SHARP DRY SLOTTING AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE INCREASING
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ASSOCIATED MIX OF CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS...WITH THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. PTYPE WITH THESE WILL START OFF AS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS...THOUGH WITH VERY MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN PLACE...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN TEND TO
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE GETS STRIPPED AWAY...LEAVING BEHIND LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
STRAY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TUG HILL/WESTERN ADIRONDACK
FOOTHILLS BY TOMORROW EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE AREAS OF
PRECIP...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AFTER TODAY/S UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECT READINGS TO FALL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE WAKE
OF TONIGHT'S FROPA...WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
RESULTING IN TEMPS EITHER FLATLINING OR EVEN DROPPING A LITTLE
FURTHER DURING THE COURSE OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY EVENING ANY REMAINING LIGHT UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EAST
OF THE LAKES WILL COME TO AN END AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
AWAY. THE AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY LAKE RESPONSE
OTHER THAN SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO QUICKLY END
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS WILL STILL BE VERY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW TO MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 20S
ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS.

ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
WILL BOOST 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND +2C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY REACH THE
UPPER 40S. ONGOING WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME
PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONGOING WEAK
WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH
850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C. LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A
SLOWER TREND IN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOW TO REMOVE ANY POPS FROM SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN THE DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGIME AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS...PERHAPS
ENDING AS SOME WET SNOW BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
AND EVEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
INCONSISTENT WITH LARGE RUN TO RUN SWINGS IN INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. THE
LATEST 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARDS THE GFS FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY IN KEEPING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES. A
LOOK THROUGH ALL OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A
NOTEWORTHY NUMBER DEVELOPING MORE OF A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR ECMWF.
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTED SOMETHING ALONG THESE
LINES...ALBEIT A FULL DAY AND A HALF LATER.

THIS PATTERN IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO
FORECAST...WITH A BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH CENTERED ON THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COUPLED WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. ODDS FAVOR THE DRY
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT GIVEN THE LOOK OF SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WILL HOLD ONTO
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
GOING WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
POTENTIAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABLY DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING WILL EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN
AS IT WILL LIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC ON CHRISTMAS DAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ANY OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO 50-55 KNOTS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR
WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS
MORNING...WITH THESE THEN SLACKENING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS DURING THE
PEAK OF THE WINDS TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50-55 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...AND 40-45 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO VFR
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES FOR A TIME
LATER TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH THESE THEN DIMINISHING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE AFFECTED AREAS AS THESE
DEVELOP...WITH IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD DROP OFF TO LOWER VFR LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ALONG WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WILL EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN AND LIFT TO
WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PLOWING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A SOLID PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY/ WESTERLY
GALES THEN FOLLOWING ON BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS TO MIX STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SUSTAINED
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE ON EITHER LAKE ERIE OR LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT...AT THIS POINT THE DURATION OF ANY SUCH WINDS
APPEARS TO BE TOO SHORT TO BE WORTH AN UPGRADE. THIS STATED... THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THIS EVENING.

LATER CHRISTMAS DAY AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS QUEBEC AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY
SHOULD THEN ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO FINALLY RELAX BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER TO
RISE THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. QPF SHOULD AVERAGE LESS
THAN A HALF INCH FOR THE BASIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER UPSTREAM OF
BOONVILLE WHERE RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S SHOULD ALMOST COMPLETELY
MELT THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THE WATERTOWN AND MCKEEVER FORECAST
POINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE...BUT BOONVILLE SHOULD
CREST CLOSE OR ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ON LAKE ERIE...A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NY
SHORELINES OF LAKE ERIE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE LAKE
THIS EVENING AND BRING RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FINE LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WITH A SUDDEN BURST OF WIND MOVING UP THE LAKE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS SUDDEN CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND
INCREASE IN SPEED IS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR A SEICHE...WITH A
BUILDING SURGE OF WATER MOVING UP THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE. EXPECT
WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN HARBORS AND INLETS. WATER WILL
LIKELY WASH ACROSS ROUTE 5 IN ATHOL SPRINGS...POSSIBLY MAKING IT
IMPASSABLE.

ON LAKE ONTARIO...A LAKESHORE FLOODING WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THAN NORMAL...RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE
LAKE. THIS DIRECTION IS FAVORED TO RESULT IN WATER RISING SEVERAL
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE LAKE. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH THE
NARROW ENTRANCE TO CHAUMONT BAY...WHERE WATER CAN PILE UP AND NOT
GET BACK OUT DUE TO THE NARROW BAY ENTRANCE. THIS SCENARIO HAS
RESULTED IN FLOODING IN THE PAST ON THE BAY. WATER WILL ALSO BE
FORCED DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION ON LOW LYING ISLANDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ007.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ004>006-
     008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM
         EST THURSDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJR/RSH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYZ007-251745-
JEFFERSON-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO GENERAL HIGH WINDS...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-008-251745-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO GENERAL HIGH WINDS...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-011-012-251745-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO GENERAL HIGH WINDS...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-020-021-251745-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO GENERAL HIGH WINDS...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-019-085-251745-
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

IN ADDITION TO GENERAL HIGH WINDS...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-251745-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-251745-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-251745-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-251745-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
1241 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
545 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-250100-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
545 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 8 PM...

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EXTREME WESTERN LAKE ERIE AT 5:45 PM EDT WILL PLOW NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY AFTER 8 PM...AND COULD THEN IMPACT THE REMAINING FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES AFTER 9 PM.

THIS LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-250215-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
704 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 9 PM...

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AT 7 PM EDT WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
AFTER 9 PM...AND COULD THEN IMPACT THE REMAINING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK COUNTIES AFTER 10 PM.

THOSE TRAVELING OR PLANNING ON ATTENDING RELIGIOUS SERVICES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING SHOULD BE EXTRA VIGILANT FOR OBJECTS
THAT MAY BE BLOWN ONTO THE ROAD.

THIS LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-250245-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
829 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 8;30 PM EDT WILL STEADILY
PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WERE
REPORTED AS THE LINE MOVED ACROSS OHIO. THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AFTER 9 PM...AND WILL THEN IMPACT THE
REMAINING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES AFTER 10 PM.

THOSE TRAVELING OR PLANNING ON ATTENDING RELIGIOUS SERVICES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING SHOULD BE EXTRA VIGILANT FOR OBJECTS
THAT MAY BE BLOWN ONTO THE ROAD.

THIS LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
833 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

NYZ002-011-012-021-250315-
ORLEANS-GENESEE-WYOMING-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...BATAVIA...WARSAW...WELLSVILLE
833 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING...

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 8:30 PM EDT WILL STEADILY
PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WERE
REPORTED AS THE LINE MOVED ACROSS OHIO. THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE
IN WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 9 PM...REACHING ORLEANS...GENESEE...
WYOMING AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES AFTER 10:30 PM.

THOSE TRAVELING OR PLANNING ON ATTENDING RELIGIOUS SERVICES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING SHOULD BE EXTRA VIGILANT FOR OBJECTS
THAT MAY BE BLOWN ONTO THE ROAD.

THIS LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

RSH