Wind Advisory 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
552 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW MVFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TODAY...WITH EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR TERRITORY POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OUT OVER THE AREA...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. NEARLY SATURATED COLD AIR WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE FALLING THROUGH IT COULD RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MORE OF THE LIMITING FACTOR.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO WEST AND NORTH
WEST...BRINGING DRIER AIR DOWN IN THE PROCESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...1040 MB PLUS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THE PROCESS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DO WELL TO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS THE MID
40S. BREEZY NORTH WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL MARK
QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL TODAY...WHEN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WOULD
BE AROUND 70. THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND A WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE A LOT BY THEN...SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...WITH MUCH LESS THREAT OF A WINTRY MIX. THIS MORNING
LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED BRIEFLY AT HBV...BUT SO FAR THAT HAS BEEN
THE EXTENT OF THE FROZEN VARIETY OF PRECIP. AS WELL...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS OUT AND WINDS DECREASE...THE WIND CHILL CONCERN
WILL ALSO DIMINISH. EXTREME COLD ISN'T ABLE TO HANG ON REAL LONG
IN THIS AREA...AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
INTO THE 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE COLD
AIR MASS MODIFIES...SHIFTING ONLY SLOWLY EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...EXPECT MONDAY MORNING IN
THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND AFTERNOON MONDAY IN
THE VALLEY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT FEATURES COASTAL TROUGHING AND
OVERRUNNING ONCE AGAIN WHICH WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
APPEAR CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AS IS. DIFFERENCES CREEP IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTH
OF OVERRUNNING AND MOVEMENT OF SFC HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GFS
HOLDS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LONGER WHICH PROLONGS THE
OVERRUNNING AND COASTAL TROUGHING WHILE ECMWF SLIDES HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES WILL DROP POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO SILENT 10S.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND HAVE
TRENDED THE GRIDS THIS WAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S EACH DAY. POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
RANCH LAND APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE CAME IN THIS EVENING AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S IN THE RANCH LANDS AROUND KHBV AND KBKS. NOT READY TO
BITE JUST YET WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /ECMWF PROGS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GFS
PROGS THE SAME HIGH OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS/. NEVERTHELESS I HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THAT AREA. AS THIS COLD AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EAST AND ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS LATE THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY...ALLOWING MARINE CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE...THOUGH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED WAVE HGTS MAY LINGER ON OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND CLEAR THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
STRONG LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FEET
TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ248>251-254.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ248>250.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248-249.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
437 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

TXZ248>257-251045-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
437 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG THROUGH 7 AM. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS UNTIL NOON. FREEZE WATCH
ZAPATA...JIM HOGGG...BROOKS...KENEDY AND WILLACY TONIGHT.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-251045-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
437 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GALE WEARNING ON THE GULF WATERS UNTIL 9 AM...TO BE REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.