Gale Warning 10, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

072 
WHUS71 KBOX 181459
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

ANZ250-254>256-182300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0010.140218T2300Z-140219T0700Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
959 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-182300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0700Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
959 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-182300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.140218T1800Z-140219T0900Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
959 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-182300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.140218T1500Z-140219T0900Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
959 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


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822 
WHUS71 KBOX 182058
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

ANZ250-254>256-190500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0010.140218T2300Z-140219T0700Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
358 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE OR
EQUIPMENT SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-190500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0700Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
358 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-190500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0900Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
358 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-190500-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0900Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
358 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

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@NWSBOSTON

532 
WHUS71 KBOX 190312
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

ANZ256-191115-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140219T0700Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-191115-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140219T0700Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 
  KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-191115-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140219T0700Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T1400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-191100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T1100Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-190900-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0900Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. 
  SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-190900-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-140219T0900Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1012 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RLG

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL TO IMPACT EVENING RUSH HOUR***

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TODAY. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND TRACKS WITH IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  THEN A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TAKES
CONTROL...MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.  THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL NOT STARTING UNTIL AFTER 8 AM IN THE WEST
AND 10 AM IN THE EAST AND COMING TO AN END BY 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN...THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUITE. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK/STRENGTH FOR THE
FORECAST.  THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
SUITE OF MODELS...AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA.  THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL
LIKELY SWITCHOVER TO RAIN FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR A TIME SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND.  THIS CUTS DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS.

THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS STORM IS THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES.  SEVERAL THINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM 850MB UP TO 500MB.
IN ADDITION...DECENT BANDING SIGNATURE IS SHOWN IN THE FRONTOGENESIS
AT 850MB.  FINALLY...THE BEST LIFT THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
OCCURS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.  THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR.

MODELS INCREASED QPF...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF WHICH
SEEMED TO TAKE A GOOD BLEND OF WHAT THE MODELS WERE PUTTING OUT.
THIS GIVES US A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY.  WITH THIS INCREASE...WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOWFALL
TOTALS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.  WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE WITH ONE
EXCEPTION...WILL ADD EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE WARNING.

FINALLY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATED
NOT JUST IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO IN THE TOTAL TOTALS AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 8 PM IN MOST LOCATIONS.  THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE
SNOW MAY LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING.  AS SNOW COMES TO AN
END...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
BETWEEN CLOUD COVER EARLY ON AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR STARTING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE COLDER NW LOCATIONS AND IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION ON WED
* A WARMER YET WETTER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION STARTING
  WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
* A COOLER PATTERN RETURNS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS A WARMING TREND FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AFTERWARDS
CONFIDENCE DROPS AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL
AMPLIFICATION ISSUES FOR EACH POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. ENSEMBLES TO POINT TOWARDS A COLDER PATTERN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

12Z MODELS GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIME
PERIOD. A QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE EC/UKMET MORE
AMPLIFIED THEN THE FASTER GFS. FINALLY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND
WITH GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AN INCREASE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY LATE FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...WITH
THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS. APPEARS THAT
THIS QUICK WARMUP MAY LAST ONLY A FEW DAYS AS THE ENSEMBLES POINT
TOWARDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE
MESOSCALE IMPACTS FOR THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OPEN 850MB WAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS 850MB WAVE DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT ONLY THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE
IMPACTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS 925
MB LOW LEVEL JET REACHES CLOSE TO 30 KTS. AT THIS TIME LOOKING AT
THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOUNDINGS...APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY LIQUID. HOWEVER IF WETBULBING
OCCURS THEN SURFACE TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO 32F AND WE COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR AT THE ONSET OF A
SHALLOW 850MB WARM AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS A VERY TRICKY
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO RAMP UP AFTER EACH RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE THEME FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
ON UPDATES TO THIS SYSTEM.

THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY RESULTING
IN RETURN FLOW FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY MAY BE THE NICEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP TO 4C ALLOWING FOR SURFACE
TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

SIGNIFICANT WAA ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO 8C TO 10C. HOWEVER WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SURFACE TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...AND NORTHWARD WILL BE IN THE MID
40S.

FOCUSING MORE ON THE WEATHER...WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ESP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHERE LIFT
IS GREATEST. 925 MB WINDS ARE ALMOST 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY
SO THIS WARM FRONT IS VERY STRONG...ESP SINCE TEMPS WARM VERY
QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
OVERALL THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION. PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AS IT GOOD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES THANKS TO THE GOOD SNOW
PACK ACROSS THE REGION NOW.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...

FOR NOW APPEARS THAT A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
BUT BIGGEST FOCUS IS THE CHANGE WITHIN THE PATTER. LOOKS AS IF
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CONUS AND HEAD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS LOOKS AS IF THE WARM UP WILL NOT LAST LONG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...AROUND 12-14Z W OF ORH...THEN 14-16Z FURTHER
E. THE SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR AT LEAST IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC HEAVY
SNOW WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE E COASTAL
TERMINALS AT TIMES. IN ANY CASE...DO EXPECT SOME SNOW ACCUMS ON
RUNWAYS THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW COMES TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z.
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR FROM SW TO NE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS MOVING W-E DURING WED INTO WED NIGHT. AS RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SPREAD THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE WED
NIGHT...CONTINUING THU.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR THU
NIGHT...THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
LASTING INTO SATURDAY. VFR BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED BY MID MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
/MAINLY 35 TO 40 KT/ IS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WEST. HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE INNER SOUNDS...BAYS...AND
HARBORS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W-SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS INCREASING THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MOVING ACROSS. VSBYS
WILL BE LOWERED AS RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-007>017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ003>006-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

CTZ002>004-MAZ002-003-007>017-RIZ001>004-182100-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ004>006-026-182100-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ018>024-RIZ005>008-182100-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NHZ011-012-015-182100-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ254>256-182100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-231-234-236-250-251-182100-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-BUZZARDS BAY-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ232-233-235-237-182100-
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
359 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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