Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

165 
WGUS71 KBOX 132112
FFSBOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

NHC005-011-132300-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140813T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH NH-CHESHIRE NH-
512 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAD 
MOVED EASTWARD...AND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA STRETCHED FROM WEARE 
AND FRANCESTOWN SOUTHWARD TO GREENVILLE.  THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED 
TO PUSH EAST OF THIS VICINITY AROUND 6 PM. UNTIL THEN...UP TO AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING 
AREA...WHILE THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...RUNOFF FROM THE 
RECENT HEAVY RAINS BRINGS THE THREAT OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR 
STANDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR RAPID AND POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING. IN URBAN AREAS AVOID FLOODED ROADS AND OBEY
ROAD CLOSURES. THOSE NEAR SMALL STREAMS MUST HEAD FOR HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 7191 4312 7185 4315 7167 4271 7167
      4272 7227 4273 7246 4275 7246 4311 7225
      4313 7218 4313 7204 4316 7202 4318 7203

$$

NMB

355 
WGUS71 KBOX 132253
FFSBOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
653 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

NHC005-011-132302-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140813T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH NH-CHESHIRE NH-
653 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND CHESHIRE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN THAT CROSSED THROUGH THE MONADNOCK REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED TO THE EAST...AND THE THREAT OF 
FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED.  AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM. 

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 4320 7191 4312 7185 4315 7167 4271 7167
      4272 7227 4273 7246 4275 7246 4311 7225
      4313 7218 4313 7204 4316 7202 4318 7203

$$

NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF URBAN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THU AND FRI. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THU AND FRI.
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SAT...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

RADAR DEPICTS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH WELL ADVERTIZED TRIPLE
POINT LOW SLICING ACROSS AREA...PERHAPS TRACKING NEAR A ORH-LWM
LINE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
AND SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN BAF AND BDL MIGHT BE A FLAG THAT THE CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH HAMPSHIRE...HAMPDEN AND HARTFORD COUNTIES MAY INTENSIFY.
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT HAPPENING ON MESO AND STORM SCALES...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

11 AM UPDATE...

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF TO BE ABREAST OF LATEST
TRENDS. UPDATED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO ENSURE THE WARWICK
AND PROVIDENCE AREAS WERE INCLUDED. AS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MA E COAST...THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TIDES AND HEAVY RAIN WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING ALONG SOME
URBAN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST RISING VERY SLOWLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN.

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST LINE.
OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING UP FROM
LONG ISLAND INTO CT/RI. IN FACT...KISP HAS RECEIVED OVER 10
INCHES OF PRECIP THIS MORNING! WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH
FLOODING THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN AND
    LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ***

1) HEAVY RAIN - FLASH FLOOD THREAT

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS AN UPPER AIR PATTERN CLOSER TO
OCTOBER THAN AUGUST IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER TOUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET AND IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL JET OF +3 STD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE ATLANTIC INFLOW INTO NYC-LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT EARLY
THIS MORNING YIELDING AN INTENSE RAIN BAND ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS
AREA OF RAIN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH 8-12" OF
RAINFALL IN THE BALTIMORE AREA YESTERDAY AND MORE RECENTLY OVER 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN PARTS OF NJ LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THESE INTENSE RAIN BANDS ARE ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
CAN ALSO SEE A CYCLONIC SWIRL WITHIN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SUGGESTING A MESO/CONVECTIVE LOW. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INTERACT WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN
IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL PLUME OF +2 STD PWATS TO YIELD HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM WALLOPS ISLAND VA CONFIRMED THIS ANOMALOUS MOIST
AIRMASS WITH AN OBSERVED PWAT OF 2.43". THIS RANKED IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST! IN ADDITION THE NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN
SHIELD AS IT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN/LOW TOP CONVECTION
(CAPES 500 J/KG OR LESS)...THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS UP AROUND 14-15KFT IS YIELDING WARM RAIN
PROCESSES ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...6 HRS INTO MODEL RUNS ENDING AT 06Z THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF APPEAR TO BE MATCHING UP BEST WITH RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THUS WILL BASE OUR QPF ON AN EVEN BLEND OF
THESE TWO DATASETS. THIS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ARE POSSIBLE PENDING ON THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
RAIN SHIELD. ONE WILDCARD REGARDING QPF WILL BE DOES THIS LOW TOP
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NYC AND LONG ISLAND PRECLUDE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD YIELDING LESS QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH? WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE MORNING
PROGRESS. THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
CT/RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OVER NORTHWEST MA INTO
SOUTHWEST NH.

IN ADDITION FLOODING MAY BE EXACERBATED IN SOME OF THE COASTAL
CITIES/TOWNS OF BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-NEW BEDFORD-FALL RIVER AS HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY DELAY RAINFALL FROM DRAINING SUFFICIENTLY.

2) SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HINGE ON HOW
FAR NORTH DOES THE WARM FRONT TRACK AND RESULTING WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TRIPLE POINT/SECONDARY LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL HAULT THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH MODELS DIFFER. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WARM SECTOR MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY TO THE MASS
PIKE. WHILE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST NYC-LONG ISLAND-COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE PT LOW AND THE
TOPOGRAPHY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE
LATTER...A FARTHER SOUTH POSITION SOMEWHERE VICINITY CT-RI INTO
SOUTHEAST MA. BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS & DEW PTS/MUCAPE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THINKING CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NYC AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO CT-RI AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST MA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF A WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY CAN'T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

3) GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COUPLED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 36 KT AT JFK
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNED THAT AS THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
GREATEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST CT/RI AND INTO EASTERN
MA. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES IN
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY
CAN'T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE 03Z-06Z WITH COLUMN
BEGINNING TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST. THUS A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN MOIST GROUND AFTER TODAY/S
RAINFALL PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR ON FRIDAY
* COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
  EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIMEFRAME UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS DIVERGE. MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTERED BY A
SOUTHERN QUEBEC UPPER LOW. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION UNTIL LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ANTICIPATE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THERE IS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS/EC
AS WELL AS MESO SCALE DIFFERENCES.

BY SUNDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MORE ZONAL FLOW
OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS THEY BOTH SHOW SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ALLOWING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD. OVERALL TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS ENSEMBLES AND
PREV FORECAST.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK PER ENSEMBLE TRENDS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY LEADING TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSTANCE IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A COLD POOL ALOFT...ANTICIPATE A QUIET DAY AS MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL CU. EXPECT A
PLEASANT DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.

DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN SHORTWAVE TIMING THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIP TIMING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CUT OFF LOW WILL STILL
BE IN THE VICINITY WITH -12C TEMPS AT 500MB ALOFT. MOISTURE ALOFT
DOES INCREASE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONGER COLD POOL \-16C\ IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS NORTH
OF ROUTE 2 HAS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. BEST
TIMING IS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STEEPENING THE
LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO ANOTHER RISK OF LOW TOP CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH SO DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING BEING AN
ISSUE.

THE WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
REGION LEADING TO A MORE TRANSITION PERIOD FOR THE REGION. AS
HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING APPEARS THAT SATURDAY WILL TREND TO MORE DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT COULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
MODELS DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND WPC.
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ON THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WITH RIDGING
SURFACE/ALOFT APPEARS TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. OVERALL KEPT MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING HOWEVER
THERE ARE HINTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE BUT LOW FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWER BANDS
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS AS SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COOLS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF
STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ROUGHLY ALONG CEF-
ORH-LWM LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 20-35 KT SHOULD
BEGIN TO RELAX AND SHIFT TO THE SW TOWARD 00Z AS PER THE PRIOR
FORECAST. LLWS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...IMPROVING TREND FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR WITH TIME FROM WEST
TO EAST. RAIN EXITS EASTERN MA DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
TEND TO LOWER TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND PERSISTENT E
TO SE FLOW FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TERMINAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF EMBEDDED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF BOS IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME
FRAME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONDITIONS VARIABLE IN
THIS AREA. RISK OF TSTMS 18Z-20Z. LOW RISK OF STRONG TSTM GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT MARGINAL GALE GUSTS BUT FOR
MOST PART COASTAL WATER WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT. THIS
IS YIELDING ROUGH SEAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TIME OF YEAR WITH
HEAVY RECREATIONAL BOATING USE. LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS COASTAL CT-
RI- MA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND EVEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONG TSTMS.

TONIGHT...OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING. SE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER ROUGH
SEAS PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS START TO DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME FOR LINGERING SEAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ONSHORE WINDS OF 20-30 KT YIELDING A
STORM SURGE OF 0.5 TO A LITTLE OVER 1.0 FT IN SPOTS. OBSERVED
VALUES SUGGEST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED
NARRAGANSETT BAY WITH THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE. MORE POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH SOME SPLASH OVER FROM ROUGH SURF
EXPECTED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG MA EAST COAST. FLOODING OF
SOME OF THE MORE VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS IS POSSIBLE WITH AN HOUR
OR TWO OF THE HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH TIDES...HOWEVER...MAY EXACERBATE
URBAN FLOODING IN SOME COASTAL AREAS BY IMPEDING THE ABILITY OF
THE FRESH WATER TO DRAIN INTO HARBORS/BAYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBOX RADAR IS CURRENTLY REMAINING IN SERVICE...BUT A PART
WILL NEED TO BE SWAPPED OUT ONCE THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWNS. BE
AWARE THAT THERE IS A RISK OF THE RADAR GOING BACK DOWN UNTIL THE
NEW PART CAN BE INSTALLED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

MAZ002>006-008>012-014-026-NHZ011-012-015-140815-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ007-015-140815-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-140815-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR A WATERSPOUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CTZ002>004-MAZ013-017-018-RIZ001>005-140815-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ016-019>021-RIZ006-007-140815-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ023-RIZ008-140815-
DUKES MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ022-024-140815-
BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
409 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THERE ALSO IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CRANSTON                41.77N  71.48W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            AREAS BETWEEN BATCHELLER ST AND CAVALRY ST CLOSED DUE
            TO FLOODED

0941 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SMITHFIELD              41.88N  71.55W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            RTE 44 AT GREENVILLE CTR 2 FEET OF STANDING WATER

0941 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GLOCESTER               41.92N  71.67W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            RTE 44 AT COOPER ROAD 2 FT OF WATER

0944 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHEPACHET               41.92N  71.67W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 44 AT BASE OF COOPER ROAD FLOODED...2 FEET OF
            STANDING WATER

0944 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SMITHFIELD              41.88N  71.55W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTES 44 AND 116 AT GREENVILLE CENTER AREA FLOODED...2
            FEET OF STANDING WATER

1025 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KILLINGLY               41.83N  71.87W
08/13/2014                   WINDHAM            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON HARTFORD PIKE BLOCKING ROAD

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PROVIDENCE              41.82N  71.42W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ATWELLS AVENUE AT I-95 FLOODED

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CRANSTON                41.77N  71.48W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEW LONDON AVENUE AT OAKLAWN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CRANSTON                41.77N  71.48W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            OAKLAWN AVENUE AT WILBUR AVENUE...CAR STUCK IN FLOOD
            WATERS AND CLOSED. REOPENED AT 1230 PM.

1042 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTH PROVIDENCE        41.86N  71.46W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            CAR STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON SMITH STREET RT. 44

1050 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST WARWICK            41.70N  71.52W
08/13/2014                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            PARK AVENUE AT RESERVOIR AVENUE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE

1135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PROVIDENCE              41.82N  71.42W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            PLEASANT VALLEY PARKWAY...CARS STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS

1135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PROVIDENCE              41.82N  71.42W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            VALLEY STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PROVIDENCE              41.82N  71.42W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            CHARLES STREET AT RANDALL STREET...CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PROVIDENCE              41.82N  71.42W
08/13/2014                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WHIPPLE STREET AT ADMIRAL AVENUE FLOODED...STREET
            CLOSED

1202 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    PORTSMOUTH              41.60N  71.25W
08/13/2014                   NEWPORT            RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER SPILLING OVER SEAWALL

&&

WS/EVT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST SPRINGFIELD        42.12N  72.65W
08/13/2014                   HAMPDEN            MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROUTE 5 SOUTH...AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF WATER COVERING
            ROAD. CAR FLOATING INSIDE WEST CENTRAL TUNNEL ON ROUTE 5
            SOUTH. ROUTE 5 AND ELM STREET FLOODED.

&&

WS/EVT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
227 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             42.12N  72.54W
08/13/2014                   HAMPDEN            MA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            6 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER UNDER THE RAILROAD OVERPASS AT
            DWIGHT STREET

&&

WS/EVT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENFIELD              42.59N  72.60W
08/13/2014                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ARCH STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

WS/EVT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
241 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             42.12N  72.54W
08/13/2014                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            EAST COLUMBUS AVENUE UNDERPASS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE

&&

WS/EVT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WESTHAMPTON             42.30N  72.77W
08/13/2014                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   COCORAHS

            MUDDY RIVER FLOWING OVER LOW SECTION OF SOUTH ROAD RT
            66

&&

WS/EVT