Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
843 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR REMOVAL OF HARD FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WINDS ARE CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. WITH NEAR IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COOLER LOCATIONS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SUNDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE
TO WEAK WEDGE SETUP...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND MID
LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. PROFILES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY...AND DO NOT EXPECT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY RAINFALL OUT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
ACROSS THAT AREA AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVELS BECOMING
SATURATED. CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST.

A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY...MUCH MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND REMOVED POPS
FOR SUNDAY AS A SECOND WAVE OF RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY NOW. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVELS WILL
ALREADY BE SATURATED WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. PROFILES QUICKLY SATURATE AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DECENT FOR THUNDER AT THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SURFACE INSTABILITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING...BUT PROFILES
QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY CROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR RETURN FLOW TO
SETUP AHEAD OF IT...AND WILL FAVOR THE DRY GFS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH TODAY...PERHAPS A BIT
THICKER AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM DEWPOINT GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT
TODAY...WITH ONE MODEL NOT INITIALIZING WELL AND ANOTHER TOO
ROBUST ON MOISTURE RETURN GIVEN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED.
TOOK A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON RH VALUES DO NOT QUITE MEET THE
CRITERIA FOR A WARNING. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ASSESS THE
DEWPOINT TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-091600-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1000 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.