Storm Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

473 
FZAK52 PAJK 230722 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF MONDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1022 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1022 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1022 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1022 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

182 
FZAK52 PAJK 231317
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG LOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND DIXON ENTRANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 


$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR CAPE DECISION STRONGEST WINDS NORTHERN AREA. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 40 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR CAPE DECISION. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. HIGHEST SEAS SOUTHERN AREA.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE MORNING. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
640 AM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY OVERNIGHT AFTER A
TROUGH PASSED TO THE EAST INTO CANADA AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. THIS HAS CAUSED SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS WITH NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. SW ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
CAN BE SEEN ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE RADAR EXTENDING ALOFT
AT ALL LEVELS.

SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE ASSOC WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND A BAND OF UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST WILL PROBABLY HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING. THIS WONT LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE SATELLITE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH.

THE APPROACHING GALE FORCE LOW SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT PORTIONS OF POW ISLAND SEE
GUSTS OF 40MPH LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES AS WELL. FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW AND CAUSE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. SURFACE WINDS WILL
FLIP BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS AND
INCREASE AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR.

AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SPIKED UP WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN SKAGWAY...JUMPING UP TO 41F EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HAINES AIRPORT IS STILL REPORTING A NW WIND DIRECTION...BUT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LIQUID AND DOWNTOWN HAINES MOST
CERTAINLY HAS A SOUTH WIND NOW AND A BIT WARMER. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AS WILL THE SUNNY
BREAKS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLING SOME AND THE
AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT IS SHORT. SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH
DURING THE DAY. GOING INTO TONIGHT IS ANOTHER STORY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT -6C OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT SOME OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD HAVE SNOW MIXED IN THE EVENING. AFTER THAT THE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A COLDER MORNING ON TUESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...MAINLY FOR
LOCAL EFFECTS. THE NAM INITIALIZED WELL AND WAS CLOSE TO THE GOING
FORECAST SO THAT WAS BLENDED INTO SOME FIELDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE FOR THE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT PERIODS. WHILE THE FORECAST STILL LOOKED GOOD AS
FAR AS LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SRN AREA TUE...MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
PRECIP WOULD GET A LITTLE FURTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
RAISED POPS ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND FREDERICK SOUND AND
ADJACENT OUTER COAST FOR TUE. SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIP
TO THE SE TUE NIGHT SOME. WINDS AND TEMPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST
PART...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS AROUND PAYA WERE BOOSTED A BIT FOR TUE
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR WIND HEADLINES OVER THE SRN AREA DUE TO GRADIENT
ORIENTATION...BUT IF LOW TRACKS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE N OF CURRENT
FORECAST...MORE WIND WILL HIT THE SRN AREA TUE INTO TUE EVENING.

STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR WED-THU. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TOGETHER ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU RIDGE TOP AND INTO
SE AK DURING WED NIGHT AND THU. THE TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRICKY
THOUGH AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH COLDER AIR CAN MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE N TUE NIGHT AND WED. IF THE COLDER AIR CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED BEFORE PRECIP WITH SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...WILL
SEE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN AND FAR ERN AREAS. THE NAM SHOWS THE
MOST COLD AIR COMING IN...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS THE PAST
FEW RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEAST COLD AIR...WITH GFS AND GEM IN
THE MIDDLE. DECIDED TO LEAVE TEMPS AS IS FOR WED-THU BUT LATER
SHIFTS MIGHT NEED TO LOWER SOME TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE N...WED
INTO THU. LOOKING LIKE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS
FOR THE NRN AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND ATTM.

FOR LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER
THE GENERAL AREA...BUT SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACTLY WHERE IT
BUILDS REMAIN...AND THESE ARE BIG AS FAR AS BOTH PRECIP POTENTIAL
AND PTYPE ARE CONCERNED. DECIDED TO NOT CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS IT
WAS BASED ON LATEST WPC...WHICH LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

FERRIN/RWT

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