Small Craft Advisory 521, NWS Juneau, AK

806 
FZAK53 PAJK 042320
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-051600-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

095 
FZAK53 PAJK 050607 AAA
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1007 PM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-060015-
YAKUTAT BAY-
1007 PM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOVED NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE
STRENGTHENING TODAY IS FORECAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPORTED BY A 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ARE BEING VERIFIED BY AT LEAST ONE SHIP
OBSERVATION AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE HANGING
ON OVER THE PANHANDLE, NOT MUCH WIND FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS. BIGGEST RESPONSE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS IN CROSS
SOUND. EVEN SO, HAVE ONLY 20 KTS THERE FOR TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT, BUT AN
EASTERLY BARRIER JET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST OF ICY
BAY. THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF COLD UPPER AIR, AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DETECTED SOME
LIGHTNING WEST OF 140W AT 50N SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT NONE
SINCE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OFFSHORE MARINE ZONE 310 AS WELL AS
COASTAL ZONES 51 AND 52. NO THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDED IN THE PUBLIC
ZONE FORECAST.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MAINTAINS A SOLID CONNECTION TO A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY, PRIMARILY WEST OF YAKUTAT. THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE
A CLEAR PUSH INLAND AND IS LIKELY GOING TO GET BLOCKED BY THE
RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE, THEN WEAKEN OR POSSIBLY GO ALOFT. BASED
ON BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT, OPTED TO CHARACTERIZE
PRECIP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SHOWERS.

BLENDED NAM, ECMWF, AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND.
BLENDED GFS AND GEM FOR POP AND QPF. UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE PER
GFS MOS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
THE GFS AND NAM FOR THEIR GOOD CONSENSUS. THE RESULTANT CHANGES
WERE MINOR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS. MAINTAINED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE INHERITED DUE TO MODEL SPREADS FOR
THE REMAINING LONG TERM PERIODS AND ADDED DAY 8 WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN
CHANGED FOR THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND...PUSHING RAIN BANDS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR LIKELY
POPS AND INCREASING WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF AIRFRAME
ICING AND AT LEAST ONE PIREP HAS REPORTED RIME ICING EARLIER THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RESULT IN
TURBULENCE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE EAST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS OF
MARGINAL VMC OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. NO LOW IMC
EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...IMPACTS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
WINDS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 9 FT. SOUTH SWELL INTO YAKUTAT BAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU