High Wind Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

267 
WWAK77 PAJK 141353
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
453 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014


AKZ027-141500-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140214T1400Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
453 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

THE HIGH WINDS IN THE HYDABURG AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO SOUTHEAST
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 

HIGHEST WIND SPEED REPORTED IN HYDABURG WAS 77 MPH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
END OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT ONE THIS EVENING. TIMING ON THE ADVISORY/WARNING FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WAS SIMPLIFIED IN THAT INDIVIDUAL ZONES WERE
COMBINED WHEREVER PRACTICAL IN AN ATTEMPT TO KEEP COMPLEXITY TO A
MINIMUM.

 SNOW EVENT ENDING THIS AFTERNOON VERIFIED IN HAINES AND IN
YAKUTAT BUT SNOWFALL IN SKAGWAY AND ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
CAME UP SHORT. EVENT TOTAL IN YAKUTAT WAS 13.2 INCHES WITH
7.8 INCHES IN HAINES AND 3 INCHES ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE PANHANDLE, LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN
HYDER AND NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT WITH SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARLY CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED MULTIPLE TIMES TODAY. DREW THE LINE
BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM FOR TONIGHT SOMEWHAT ARBITRARILY
AT THE OUTER COAST SOUTH OF CAPE DECISION AND OVER A THIN STRIP
OF LAND ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH. ALSO INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL MARINE ZONE THROUGHOUT THE
TONIGHT PERIOD.

 A FAST MOVING LOW SOUTH OF 50N AND EAST OF 140W WILL TURN NORTH
THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD AND SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT ENOUGH SNOW WITH THE WARMER TEMPS FOR
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS IN ZONES 27 AND 28, ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH
OF KETCHIKAN IN 28 WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES. HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW IN ZONES 23, 26, AND 29. MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL
FARTHER NORTH, HENCE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

 FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY IN PARTICULAR, THE EVENT GOING ON TODAY
IS A SEPARATE EVENT FROM WHAT WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST, EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE REALLY NO CESSATION IN
SNOWFALL BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS.

 GALES AT EITHER END OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN BETWEEN. BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FOR COASTAL ZONE
42 AS WELL AS SUMNER STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LOW COMES ASHORE.

 USED NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WINDS. POP FIELDS
SLIGHTLY TWEAKS. USED NEW MODEL RUN TO UPDATE QPF. TEMPS FROM
ENSEMBLE GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR STILL REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE PANHANDLE SO
SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY RESULT FOR ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP AS A DRIFTING FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF SOON AFTER THE FRI STORM. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE INITIALLY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
YAKUTAT WILL BARE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP, AND WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY SAT, MAY SEE UPWARDS OF
ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE TEMPS START TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO MIX
WITH RAIN. AS SUCH DECIDED TO ISSUE ANOTHER WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR YAKUTAT FROM FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

 AS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THE PRECIP WILL TAKE ITS TIME
GETTING HERE AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THE LOW THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND HEADS NORTH FRI
NIGHT DOES NOT HELP WITH THE FORECAST AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT. THEY ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING
ITS POSITION ALL OVER THE GULF. ALL IN ALL DECIDED ON A ECMWF AND
GEM SOLUTION FOR THIS MESS. THE EASTERLY FLOW STILL PRESENT IN
THE INNER CHANNELS WILL NOT HELP EITHER. AT THIS POINT THE OUTER
COAST WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE PRECIP STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRI NIGHT. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL SAT NIGHT BEFORE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD ENOUGH TO GET THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS INVOLVED.
BY THAT POINT THE FRONT WILL HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

 THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE WIND. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN GULF EARLY SAT AND WITH 850 MB
WINDS KICKING UP TO 60 KT TO 70 KT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT, MARINE HEADLINES AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
SAT FOR THE OUTER COAST AND SOME INNER CHANNEL AREAS. SPEAKING OF
THE INNER CHANNELS, WIND DIRECTION ON SAT WAS TRICKY AS WE STILL
HAVE NORTHERLY COLD AIR OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE QUESTIONS IS WILL
THE OUTFLOW STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERPOWER THE SYNOPTIC SE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I AN THINKING THAT FROM ABOUT POINT
RETREAT SOUTHWARD THE ANSWER WILL BE NO AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SE WIND. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, SKAGWAY, AND HAINES WILL LIKELY
STAY NORTH AS I THINK THE COLD AIR WILL JUST BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE OUTFLOW GOING THERE ON SAT.

 AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUT LATER THIS WEEKEND THERE IS
INDICATIONS OF MORE WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH BUT THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN OR WHERE THEY WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MID WEEK THINGS START TO CHANGE AS THE NORTHERN GULF LOW STARTS
DRIFTING TO THE SE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW THAT SETS UP WILL START TO
DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN AS WELL AS MAYBE START ANOTHER COOLING
TREND.

 LONG RANGE MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT
ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL NAM WAS VERY SLOW, ECMWF WAS
FASTER, AND THE GFS WAS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. THE
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT DID
NOT HELP. MODEL AGREEMENT GETS WORSE NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL
PATTERN STARTS TO SLOWLY CHANGE. DECIDED ON USING THE ECMWF AND
GEM FOR THE WEEKEND AS THOSE SEEMED TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM. USED WPC FOR LATER PERIODS TO EVEN OUT
THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018>021-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018-019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-034>036-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>033-041-043-051-
     052.

&&

FRITSCH/EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
901 PM AKST THU FEB 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             40 W HAINES             59.24N 136.57W
02/13/2014  M2.5 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL AS OF 11 AM

1200 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/13/2014  M5.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL FROM 11 PM LAST NIGHT TO NOON TODAY.

0200 PM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/13/2014  M14.2 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL OF 14.2 INCHES OF SNOW

1100 AM     SNOW             WHITE PASS              59.62N 135.14W
02/13/2014  M1.0 INCH                           AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

JWA