Storm Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

976 
FZAK62 PAFC 071144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080130-
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR 47N 179E WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 48N 172W AT 950 MB WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO
NEAR 49N 165W AT 954 MB LATE WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 30 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 24 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

816 
FZAK62 PAFC 072339
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081415-
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 MB LOW NEAR 44N 178W WILL MOVE TO 49N 170W AT 951 MB WED
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 51N 162W AT 962 MB THU AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-081415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 30 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 25 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 28 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 TO
27 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 29 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

593 
FZAK62 PAFC 081151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090230-
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 950 MB LOW NEAR 47N 172W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 49N 166W AT 953 MB
LATE WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 53N 154W AT 964 MB LATE THU
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-090230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
351 AM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

980 
FZAK62 PAFC 082345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091400-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 945 MB LOW NEAR 48N 171W MOVES 56N 149W AT 970 MB FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

668 
FZAK62 PAFC 091153
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100130-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 MB LOW NEAR 49N 166W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 153W AT 966 MB
FRI MORNING AND THEN INTO THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ411-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
353 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
116 PM AKDT MON OCT 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN...WITH A WEAKENING RESIDUAL LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF OVER EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS PERSIST OTHERWISE ACROSS THE COOK INLET
REGION...SUSITNA VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHERE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. &&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IN
DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MOVING INTO
THE YUKON WHILE A NEW LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST
AND WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

OUT WEST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM 300 MILES SOUTH OF SHEMYA MOVING TO ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE
SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS NEW LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THE GREATEST MODEL
DISAGREEMENT OCCURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT INTO THE
GULF...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 00Z MODELS FROM LAST EVENING. THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE SHOWED MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST FROM THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN INTO THE YUKON...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE GULF
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS OFFSHORE FLOW YIELDS
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN
AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT PERSISTS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. STRONG
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE STRONG LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF PHANFONE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING
OVER SIBERIA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THAT TRAVERSE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. AS THESE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE TROUGH...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS INDICATIVE TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA MAINLAND AS THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ONCE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND BERING STRAIT WILL HAVE BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
MEAN FLOW BY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM
KAMCHATKA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON SATURDAY WHICH RESULTS IN SOME
LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA THAT FLATTENS OUT
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THE
PHASING FROM PHANFONE AND A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT SPREAD AS FAR INLAND
AS WAS EXPECTED THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE RESULTANT LOW FROM THE
PHASING OF PHANFONE AND A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSES FURTHER SOUTH
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALASKA RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
INTO THE GULF...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SATURDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE PREDOMINATELY
SNOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA)
COULD SEE SOME OF THE SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL GET SLAMMED
BY A STRONG WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS. THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. FURTHER INLAND WILL BE MUCH DRIER BUT WILL STILL SEE DECENT
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND/OR RAIN. THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL ADVECT
WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +3 TO +6 BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF
ANCHORAGE...THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PARTS OF THE MAT-SU
VALLEY. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THESE AREAS...IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM. THE EXCEPTION OF COURSE WOULD BE ACROSS
ELEVATED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...155 170-179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

CC OCT 14