Storm Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

988 
FZAK52 PAFC 131145 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140030-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 963 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
50 NM NORTH OF PORT MOLLER AT 977 MB SUN MORNING. THE LOW MOVES 60
NM SOUTHWEST OF DILLINGHAM SUN EVENING AND MOVES INLAND NEAR
DILLINGHAM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-140030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-140030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 40 KT
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-140030-
BRISTOL BAY-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-140030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 13 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-140030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-140030-
UNALASKA BAY-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-140030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. FROM DUTCH HARBOR E...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
DUTCH HARBOR...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-140030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-140030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-140030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-140030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-140030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-140030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-140030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-140030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-140030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-140030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
345 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
611 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
REGION AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EXTENDING THROUGH KOTZEBUE
SOUND. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 976 MB SURFACE LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF SAINT PAUL. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SPREADING
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING STRAIT.
THE 300 MB DEPICTS A SOUTHEASTERLY 95 KNOT MERIDIONAL JET STREAK
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND A NORTHWESTERLY 120 KNOT
MERIDIONAL JET STREAK SOUTH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA. THE
MODELS HAVE THIS STRONG LOW ON EAST SIDE OF SAINT PAUL AND THEN
PINWHEELS THE LOW AROUND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A GALE FORCE BARRIER JET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TODAY. THE
GFS/EC WERE THE MODELS OF CHOICE OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND IS UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LOWER HILLSIDE
AND EAST ANCHORAGE. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ALONG THE
TURNAGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTH GULF COAST WILL
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST REGION
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AGAIN AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE
WILL BE CLEARING OF SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALUETIANS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BERING SEA LOW AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY BUT HAVE ALSO
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE EC BRINGING THE LOW INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE GFS TAKING IT ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF. PREFER THE EC
SOLUTION FOR NOW AS THE GEM AND NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE TRACK
OF THE LOW...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A CLOUDY AND
WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA KEEPS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME FARTHER WEST IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 187.
         FLOOD ADVISORY 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 173 174 175 176 185 411 413.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 171
                      172 177 178 179 180 181 351 352 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PLD/CB SEP 14