Storm Warning 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

206 
FZAK51 PAFC 261750 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
850 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

CORRECTED ZONE 130 HEADLINE

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 330 NM SW OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING EARLY THU MORNING AND WEAKEN. A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONTS WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN GULF
THROUGH THU. 
$$

PKZ119-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-270300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-270300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-270300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
850 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
850 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-270300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-270300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-270300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

281 
FZAK51 PAFC 270004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU MORNING AND
DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ119-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-271500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-271500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-271500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-271500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-271500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ136-271500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-271500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-271500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE AK PANHANDLE IS BUILDING NORTH WITH AN
UPPER HIGH FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL ALCAN BORDER. A COOL AND CRISP
MORNING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING NEAR THIS RIDGE/HIGH
ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. A LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LURK JUST SW OF THE GULF. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK
AND THE GULF...AMPLE CLOUDS WITH A LOW ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AKPEN
CONTINUE POKING INTO THE REGION. RAIN PERSIST OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TO WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WITH SOME ALSO BRUSHING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MOST OF THIS IS FALLING
AS RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAVE NOSED AREA
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO THE 30S FAHRENHEIT...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. THOUGH THE KENAI RADAR IS INOPERABLE DUE TO
MAINTENANCE...DOWNSLOPING OF TYPICAL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES SEEMS APPARENT BASED ON MARKED STRENGTHENING OF
SE FLOW ON THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HOLDING SERVE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MOSTLY WITH NO LOWERED
TREND NOTED.

OUT WEST...LARGE SCALE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A
MATURE NORTH PACIFIC CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. THE ONCE
CONCENTRIC NORTH PACIFIC LOW HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AS IT WEAKENS AND
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A LARGE SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST DOWN
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL HAVE
BEEN UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA DUE IN LARGE
PART TO DOWN-SLOPING OFF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND THE GULF...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE UPPER-HIGH WILL BUILD TO
JUST NE OF NORTHWAY WHERE MODELS SHOW IT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRI BEFORE SOME WEAKENING AND RETREATING TO THE EAST ON SAT.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE TRENDED WARMER...PEAKING
+4 TO 5 CELSIUS ON THU BEFORE MODERATING BACK BELOW 0 CELSIUS FRI AND
SAT. ENERGY WITH THE COMPLEX LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LURKING JUST SW
OF THE GULF IS DEPICTED SPLITTING WITH A SOUTHERN LOBE THAT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE LOWER 48 PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN LOBE LIFTING UP
THROUGH THE S MAINLAND. IN GENERAL...THE SUBSTANCE IS THAT STRONG SE
FLOW DOES INDEED TREND MORE S IN NATURE...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PERMITTED TO ENVELOPE MORE OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-HIGH
INTERACTING WITH ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH NO LONGER APPEARS A
CONCERN...WITH NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGESTING THIS OCCURRING NOW.

OUT WEST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT-TERM IN REGARDS TO SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. SUBTLE NUANCES
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NPAC LOW ELONGATES AND A DEFORMATION BAND
FORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE TO THE WEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SECOND NPAC LOW THAT WILL BE
PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUB-960 MB LOW WILL BE OVER 600 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN....A
SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
CHAIN AS WELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FT AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE STRONGEST GALES WILL BE TRENDING TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE GULF AND AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AS THE LOW TRACKING
TO THE AKPEN IS IN THE WEAKENING STAGES AND THE SUPPORTING FRONT IS
PUSHING THROUGH. A WEAKER FRONT MOVES UP ON THU WITH THE PARENT
UPPER-TROUGH...BUT PRECIP INTENSITY OVERALL WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. A
PERIOD OF CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS FOR MARINE
AREAS APPEARS ON TAP TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
ADDITIONAL STRONG SURFACE FEATURES MOVING TO THE REGION.

FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND SE FACING SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT. DEGREE OF
SE FLOW ALOFT REALLY DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE DOWNSLOPED
AREAS DRY SAVE FOR PERHAPS A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES OR SOME LOCALLY
STEADIER PRECIP ALONG TURNGAIN ARM. LOCALES WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING IF OR WHEN ANY SPRINKLES
DEVELOP. THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE ALONG THE ALCAN TRENDS FROM NEGATIVELY
TILTED TO MORE UPRIGHT/NEUTRAL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS AGAINST IT'S
EASTERN AND NW FLANKS. THUS AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE COMPLEX
LOW/TROUGH LIFT NORTHWARD...MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
PRECIP FALL OVER THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPED AREAS. THU NIGHT WOULD
FEATURE THIS...AND THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MODIFYING BY
THIS TIME SO IT WOULD BE A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN OR LIGHT WET SNOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO WARM OVERNIGHT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THIS HAS LED TO A STEADY TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
BE THE LAST AREAS TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING TO MODIFY THE CURRENT AIR MASS. FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AS TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING BUT A BRIEF SHOT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF BETHEL AND
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG UP-SLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE...ALEUTIAN RANGE...ALASKA PENINSULA...THE AHKLUN
MOUNTAINS AND KILBUCK RANGE.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...
IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MAINLY AS SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY. LOOKING AT THE 850 MB THICKNESS AND THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES...
THERE IS A FINE LINE AT THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT WILL
SEPARATE RAIN FROM SNOW. THIS BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AT TIMES...BUT THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD
REMAIN SNOW. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE 12Z RAOBS FROM ST PAUL AND COLD
BAY. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE FROM SAINT PAUL REMAINS
COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WHILE COLD BAY HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP IN BOTH THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IN
THE MORNING...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LIGHT BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER-LOW SWINGING OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA LOOKS TO DAMPEN
THE ALCAN RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...AND AS A LARGE COMPLEX LOW
SKIRTS UNDER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND GULF...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
TO BUILD THROUGH THE NORTH TO EASTERN BERING. THIS RIDGE SHARPLY
PINCHES OFF INTO AN UPPER HIGH WITH RENEWED REX BLOCKING FORMING AS
CONSIDERABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND
N JAPAN DIGGING OR REPLACING THE COMPLEX LOW UNDERNEATH THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER-HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA COUPLED WITH
THE WEAKENED RIDGING OVER E AK WOULD FAVOR SOME LOWER HEIGHTS
SNEAKING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL A VERY COMPLEX MESSY TRANSITION. IN
SHORT...EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY OVER THE MAINLAND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. PERIPHERAL
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS ACROSS THE BERING/CHAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 127 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 180 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM/MMC