Storm Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

079 
FZAK51 PAFC 160017 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 120 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161315-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SAT NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 850 NM SOUTH OF
CORDOVA WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK SUN
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-161315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161315-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161315-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161315-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161315-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 20 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 4
FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 3 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE OUTER BAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 PM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE AND YUKON
TERRITORY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...INCLUDING MOST OF BRISTOL BAY. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA CAN BE
SEEN ENTERING THIS WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SHEMYA AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ABSORB
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BECOMING THE
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE BERING SEA REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO SUNDAY
WHEN THEY BEGIN TO HAVE SOME FAIRLY MINOR DISAGREEMENTS WITH BOTH
AN ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE LOW IN THE GULF. THE LARGEST MODEL
DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
FASTER IN MOVING IT TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WHILE THE ECMWF IS BOTH
A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE TIMING OF THIS LOW MOVING
THROUGH WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE DURATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL OVER KODIAK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND IN THE VICINITY OF
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY BUT WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHERE THE INVERSION IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE GULF COAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND...WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS KEEPING
INLAND AREAS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. A BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A WARM LAYER ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LINGER NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SMALL SURFACE LOWS
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER IT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN AS THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM ROTATING IN TO THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS MORE
OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION...SPREADING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING EXPECT TO SEE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FACING WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS WARM
CONDITIONS ALOFT FROM THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF NW
CANADA AND MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. STABLE CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES FURTHER INLAND
HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG INVERSIONS TO FORM ALLOWING POCKETS
OF COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PORTION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT COOLER ALOFT...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVES TO MAKE IT OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING. OUT WEST VARIOUS COMPLEX LOWS WILL SIT IN THE
BERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 137 138 150 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK