Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

792 
FZAK52 PAFC 302306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011145-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. 
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
129 PM AKDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE YUKON DELTA AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA DUE TO THIS LOW.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CANADA EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE INTERIOR AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN ROTATING AROUND THE GULF LOW. THIS WAVE
WAS NOT WELL DEFINED ON THE MODELS AND LOOKS STRONGER THAN ANY OF
THEM HAD IT. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT PROGRESS VERY MUCH MORE WESTWARD
DUE TO THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THIS FEATURE BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF IT. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
BUT THERE IS A MUCH LARGER DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE IT
MOVING INTO THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY REGIONS...INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU AREAS. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN ITS WESTWARD
MOVEMENT WHILE THE NAM NOT ONLY IS QUICKER BUT IT STALLS THE WAVE OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KENAI PENINSULA. IF THAT HAPPENS THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN SOUTH CENTRAL THAN EXPECTED. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN ON TUESDAY IN THESE AREAS BUT
IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS THE NAM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY
AND MORE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR. TOMORROW
WILL SEE LESS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHERE THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS WITH IT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST...COOL...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AND WARMING TUESDAY
AND BEYOND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE BERING
SEA REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH LITTLE DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (FOURTH OF JULY).
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY MOST
AREAS...WITH NEAR 70 FOR GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN TYPICAL LAND-SEA BREEZES PREDOMINATING AND WILL KEEP
THE MID- AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN
THESE AREAS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEKEND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND THE
TYPICAL STRATUS AND FOG PREDOMINATING OVER MOST OF THE MARINE
AREAS.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

JUN 14