Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

162 
WWAK61 PAFC 221547
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
747 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A RETURN TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES...

.THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WIND EVENT SIMILAR
TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COOK INLET CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES WILL DEVELOP AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE WAVE...HOLDING ON
LONGEST ON THE WESTERN KENAI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INLET. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS AND
WON'T BEGIN TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

AKZ121-230800-
/O.EXB.PAFC.FW.W.0019.140522T2200Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
747 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT FRIDAY FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 30 PERCENT RECOVERING LATE TONIGHT.
  HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN INLAND TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON. 

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25
  TO 30 MPH DIMINISHING 5 TO 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PEAK
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL HANG
  ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE INLET BUT BEGIN TO
  DIMINISH INLAND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ145-230800-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0019.140522T2000Z-140524T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
747 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT TODAY RECOVERING THIS
  EVENING. HUMIDITIES DROPPING AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON. 

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
  DIMINISHING 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING THEN PEAK
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
  DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

494 
WWAK61 PAFC 221834
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1034 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A RETURN TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES...

.THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WIND EVENT SIMILAR
TO EARLY IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COOK INLET CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES WILL DEVELOP AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE WAVE...HOLDING ON
LONGEST ON THE WESTERN KENAI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INLET.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS AND WON'T BEGIN TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA.

AKZ141-230600-
/O.EXB.PAFC.FW.W.0019.140522T2000Z-140523T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
1034 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND FOR COPPER RIVER BASIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WIND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER ABOVE
  CRITICAL VALUES LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ121-231045-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.140522T2200Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
1034 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 30 PERCENT RECOVERING LATE TONIGHT. 
  HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN INLAND TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 
  TO 30 MPH DIMINISHING 5 TO 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN 
  PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL 
  HANG ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE INLET BUT BEGIN TO 
  DIMINISH INLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ145-231045-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.140522T2000Z-140524T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
1034 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT TODAY RECOVERING THIS 
  EVENING. HUMIDITIES DROPPING AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH 
  DIMINISHING 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING THEN 
  PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL 
  GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

035 
WWAK61 PAFC 230004
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

AKZ121-231615-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
404 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT RECOVERING LATE TONIGHT.
  HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN INLAND TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 25 MPH THROUGH EVENING BECOMING
  LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
  VARIABLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
  MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
  LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY RECOVER
  TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DROP INTO THE MID
  TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ141-230600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140523T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
404 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER ABOVE 
  CRITICAL VALUES LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ145-231615-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
404 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT TODAY RECOVERING THIS 
  EVENING. HUMIDITIES DROPPING AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH DIMINISHING
  TO 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
  WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RELATIVE
  HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE 60 TO 70
  PERCENT RANGE BEFORE DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE MID TEENS TO
  LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

575 
WWAK61 PAFC 230522
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
922 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

AKZ141-230630-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140523T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
922 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

THE STRONG WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

$$

AKZ121-232130-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
922 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT RECOVERING LATE TONIGHT. 
  HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AGAIN INLAND TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 25 MPH THROUGH EVENING BECOMING 
  LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND 
  VARIABLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 
  MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE 
  BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO 
  ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DROP 
  INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ145-232130-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
922 PM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...18 TO 28 PERCENT TODAY RECOVERING THIS 
  EVENING. HUMIDITIES DROPPING AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH 
  DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS 
  WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RELATIVE 
  HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE 60 TO 70 
  PERCENT RANGE BEFORE DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE MID TEENS TO 
  LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

023 
WWAK61 PAFC 231602
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
802 AM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014


AKZ121-145-240600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-SUSITNA VALLEY-
802 AM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...19 TO 28 PERCENT WITH A FEW POCKETS AROUND
  15 PERCENT. 

* TIMING...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
  RECOVER BY MIDNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

587 
WWAK61 PAFC 240010
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014


AKZ121-145-240600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-SUSITNA VALLEY-
410 PM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...19 TO 28 PERCENT WITH A FEW POCKETS AROUND
  15 PERCENT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

* TIMING...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH LOWEST LEVELS EARLY THIS
  EVENING THEN RECOVER BY MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

996 
WWAK61 PAFC 240506
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
906 PM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014

AKZ121-145-240615-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140524T0600Z/
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-SUSITNA VALLEY-
906 PM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAS RECOVERED THIS EVENING AND RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
321 PM AKDT WED MAY 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE A
TROUGH IS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH
BRINGS STRONGER WINDS WITH IT. OUT IN THE GULF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE MID TERM
THERE BEGINS TO BE DISAGREEMENT WITH A LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF. WITH THE LOW OUT WEST THE GEM
LOOKS TO BE FASTER THEN SLOWS DOWN WHILE THE GFS IS PROGRESSING
THINGS MORE SLOWLY. FOR THE LOW NEAR THE GULF THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE EC BEGINS TO TRACK FASTER THAN THE OTHERS
AND THE GEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTH MORE QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW IN THE GULF IS QUICKLY FILLING AND PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP SURFACE FLOW LIGHT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL.
WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER PRESSURE ALSO
WILL ALLOW AN INVERSION TO AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY TRAP SOME OF THE SMOKE FROM FIRES AROUND
THE AREA. WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE AREAS THIS WOULD KEEP MUCH
OF THE SMOKE PUSHED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THE SMOKE COULD SPREAD WESTWARD. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY THE INVERSION WILL BREAK
AND ALLOW FOR MIXING. THIS WILL HELP DISPERSE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY A TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG COOK
INLET. FRIDAY EVENING A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETUP TO THE NORTH
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...PRIMARILY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BEFORE GOING SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY
THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ALLOW FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. EARLY ON THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AWAY BUT
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FINALLY ON
SATURDAY A LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE BERING WILL BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO THE
STATE. THEN LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE WEST AND
BRING PRECIP TO THE ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...152 155 161.
&&

DWK

MAY 14