Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

164 
WWAK62 PAFC 132259
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND ALSO MIX
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES ACROSS BOTH THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES.

AKZ152-141600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS
  EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS
  EVENING...RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-141600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS
  EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID 20S THIS EVENING...RECOVERING
  INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
  MID TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
  THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
  60S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

166 
WWAK62 PAFC 140535
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND ALSO MIX
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES ACROSS BOTH THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES.

AKZ152-142145-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY HAS EXPIRED...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON 
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE 
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-142145-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY HAS EXPIRED...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RECOVERING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON 
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE 
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

477 
WWAK62 PAFC 141453
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
653 AM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

.DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND
HAS USHERED IN A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
INTO THE 70S AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMBINED
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY
LATE THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES.

AKZ152-150700-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
653 AM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...LOW TO MID TEENS.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE
  MID TEENS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-150700-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
653 AM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS
  DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE DROPPING
  AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

446 
WWAK62 PAFC 142344
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 PM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

.HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS USHERED IN A VERY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AT MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. BY LATE THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO SLOWLY
RISE.

AKZ152-151545-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
344 PM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY
FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...LOW TO MID TEENS.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE 
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE DROPPING 
  AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-151545-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
344 PM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY
FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE 
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE DROPPING 
  AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

711 
WWAK62 PAFC 151449
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
649 AM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

.PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
70S AT MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MOIST AND MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS FROM THE BERING SEA WILL PUSH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY INTO THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

AKZ152-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
649 AM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...LOW TO MID TEENS.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY...AND WILL THEN RECOVER WELL INTO
  THE 50S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
649 AM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY...AND WILL THEN RECOVER WELL INTO
  THE 60S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

388 
WWAK62 PAFC 152350
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

AKZ152-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
350 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS THIS
  EVENING...AND WILL THEN RECOVER TO AROUND 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
350 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE 
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY...AND WILL THEN RECOVER WELL 
  INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

KOCHEVAR

202 
WWAK62 PAFC 160603
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1003 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

AKZ152-160715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
1003 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

AKZ161-160715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
1003 PM AKDT THU MAY 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED ANCHORAGE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ANCHORAGE AREA. IT APPEARS FOG DEPTH
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA...BUT IT IS
DENSE NONETHELESS. THINKING SOME HEATING WILL HELP VISIBILITY
IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

JAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS MORNING IN THE AOR IS THE
MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF/UPPER COOK INLET AND OUT IN THE BERING
SEA. WITH REGARDS TO FEATURES...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW
AK IS QUICKLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THIS TROUGH IS DAMPENING THE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE AOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-RIDGING
DOES HOWEVER REMAIN STRONG OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND AKPEN
BETWEEN A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER-LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC AND A LOW
NEAR SHEMYA. THE LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC HAS SPAWNED OFF A PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT IS TRACKING TO FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE GULF AND THE AK
PANHANDLE. THE 999 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS MOVING NORTH WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE WESTERN CHAIN...UNABLE TO
MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOWNSTREAM IN
THE EASTERN BERING.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
REASONABLY CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN
THE AOR. AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLEARS SOUTHCENTRAL AK LATE
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW IT INTERACTS WITH
THE RESIDUAL LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING UP TOWARDS SE AK ON WED...BUT
THE SUBSTANCE OF THESE AREN'T TOO IMPACTFUL ON THE AOR. IN
GENERAL...MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT
MIGRATING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW FORMING
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS SHOWN DRIFTING TO
AROUND 200 MI E OF KODIAK CITY ON THU WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE
UPPER-RIDGING IN THE EASTERN BERING IS DEPICTED PINCHING OFF AN
UPPER-HIGH CENTER TONIGHT NEAR UNALASKA...WHICH THEN SNEAKS TO
NEAR THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY ON THU. THE GFS PUSHES THIS
UPPER HIGH A BIT FURTHER INTO THE SW MAINLAND THOUGH THE REMAINING
MODELS KEEP IT OUT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION THOUGH...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AK THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FURTHER
WEST...THE LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS SHOWN MOVING TO AROUND 600 MILES
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WED AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INTO
EASTERN SIBERIA AND DISSIPATING ON THU. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THAT TREND.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/GULF...
FOG HAS BEEN RATHER THICK OVER COOK INLET THIS MORNING AS THE LAST
OF THE UP INLET FLOW HANGS ON. THIS WILL CHANGE MARKEDLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE PREEXISTING AIRMASS OVER UPPER COOK INLET IS ADDING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WHEN THE
STRONG DRY WINDS ARRIVE TO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA)...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WE WILL PUSH BACK THE START TIMES
OF RED FLAG WARNINGS TO LATE WED MORNING FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BY
LATE THIS EVENING. THE FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE
REDUCED A BIT IN SOUTHCENTRAL AS WELL BECAUSE THE UPPER
RIDGING/HIGH DOES NOT BUILD IN QUITE AS FAR INTO THE MAINLAND.
ASIDE FROM FIRE WEATHER THREAT...OUTFLOW GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS
THE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THROUGH TYPICAL GAPS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS AND CHANNELED
AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SW AK FIRE DANGER WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THU DUE TO STRONGER
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FOR MORE AND A LONGER
DURATION OF DRY AIR. THOUGH TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTH...KODIAK ISLAND WILL ALSO LIKELY BENEFIT FROM A MORE OFF-
SHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
LESS LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...
LITTLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED OUT WEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
LITTLE FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE STABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS
PERSISTENT TYPICAL FOG/STRATUS. THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL CHAIN WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS EBB BY TONIGHT AND WED
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES IN PLACE AND THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO E RUSSIA.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
STILL ANTICIPATING A SIZABLE LOBE OF ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND/GULF LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS REMAIN FUZZY...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY A
SIZABLE PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. WELL ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER INCREASINGLY LOOKS TO TREND CLOUDIER
AND COOLER WITH MORE SIZABLE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AS THIS
LARGE LOW MEANDERS AROUND WITH IT'S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FEW
CHANGES OVERALL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN
REGION. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE BERING SLIDES TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OR WEAKENS A BIT...BUT DOESN'T BREAK
COMPLETELY. THUS TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER (MORE FOG/STRATUS)
CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...101 121
MARINE...GALE...177 411 413
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...121 141 145 152 161

JAM