Gale Warning 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

955 
FZAK52 PAFC 301140 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010015-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 994 MB LOW 530 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK
WILL MOVE TO 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 987 MB EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 990 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TO 460 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 979 MB BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING TO 992 MB EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-010015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-010015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-010015-
BRISTOL BAY-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-010015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-010015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-010015-
UNALASKA BAY-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-010015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-010015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-010015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-010015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-010015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-010015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-010015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-010015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-010015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-010015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-010015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
340 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

799 
FZAK52 PAFC 302251
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011145-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA THU. A 989 MB LOW
470 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES 300 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU AND WEAKENS TO
1004 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011145-
BRISTOL BAY-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011145-
UNALASKA BAY-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
251 PM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
156 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BRISK GAP FLOWS WHERE
EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCED SOME LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS
BRISK EASTERLY GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...MUCH
OF SW ALASKA WAS DRY.

&&

MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODEL HANDING OF UPPER LEVEL AS WELL AS
SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DIFFERENCES HOWEVER DO ARISE THU SOUTH OF THE GULF
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW COMPLEX. THE 00Z ECMWF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED AN OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOVED SOUTH OF THE GULF ON
THU AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH DEPICT A BROADER/ELONGATED AND MUCH WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE NAM WILL BE INITIALLY
USED THROUGH WED IN THE EAST TO CAPTURE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS...THEN
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE GFS. OUT WEST...THE GFS WILL BE USED FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF SUPPORTING NW FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. VERY STRONG GAP
FLOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF AND
EASTERN KENAI PEN AS PRESSURE AND TEMPS GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM DURING THE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT WANES.

STRONG DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY OF THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SNOW WITH MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREAD EAST BEHIND THE TROUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS SW
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE DELTA AND ADJACENT
COAST. THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY HAMPER ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER BRISTOL BAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BRISK
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AK PEN THROUGH WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND WIND WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS UNTIL THE LOW TO THE SOUTH FINALLY DROPS FURTHER
INTO THE PACIFIC LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID
WEEK...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN AND PROVIDING VERY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SEE
IMPACTS FROM A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (FRI OCT 3 - MON OCT 6)...

ON FRIDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
EXTENDING INTO SIBERIA...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH STEADILY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER
BASIN. THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH A LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...SO A CONSERVATIVE MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH WAS TAKEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. BY
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN GROWS IN MAGNITUDE QUICKLY AS
THE TRACK OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC CYCLONES (POSSIBLY INCLUDING
RECURVING REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES) MOVING INTO THE
BERING BECOMES HIGHLY ERRATIC...THUS RESULTING IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. WITH THAT
SAID...THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE FALL CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND.

- AHSENMACHER

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 121 126 127 129 130 131 172 174
176 351. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC/AHSENMACHER SEP 14