Gale Warning 151, NWS Anchorage, AK

311 
FZAK62 PAFC 191205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 49N 178E WILL MOVE TO 52N 176E AT 983 MB THIS
EVENING THEN TO 51N 171E THU AFTERNOON AT 981 MB. A 991 MB LOW WILL
FORM NEAR 51N 174W THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 54N 174W AT 990 MB THU
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. A 974 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 46N
170W THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 55N. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 55N. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

832 
FZAK62 PAFC 200003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR 52N 177E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB NEAR 52N 172E
THU MORNING AND THEN DRIFT INTO THE PACIFIC AND DISSIPATE FRI
AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 986 MB NEAR
53N 175W THU MORNING AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 46N
172W THU AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 973 MB NEAR 51N 171W FRI
AFTERNOON.
 
$$

PKZ411-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.  
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 55N. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.THU...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

691 
FZAK62 PAFC 201218
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 52N 174E WILL MOVE TO 50N 170E AT 987 MB TONIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE NEAR 49N 173E FRI EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 53N 175W
WILL MOVE TO 55N 174W AT 989 MB THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. A 973
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 46N 171W TONIGHT THEN TO 55N 178W
AT 967 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 58N IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. S OF 54N...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

866 
FZAK62 PAFC 202355
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211300-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 46N 172W WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB
NEAR 55N 174W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB NEAR 57N 178E SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.  PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS BEEN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE PAST WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...HOWEVER A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS PULLING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...LEADING TO UNUSUALLY HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES IN A NARROW BAND FROM NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS SO FAR PROTECTING THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY FROM ANY SNOWFALL...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SEWARD
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO COOK INLET THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW CREEPING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. OUT WEST...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT ARE STILL
STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL BE A
KEY PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER JUMPING SOUTHWARD WITH THE TROUGH POSITION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE NOW CORRECTED
BACK TO A FURTHER NORTH POSITION. THE NAM HAD VERY POOR
INITIALIZATION...FAILING EVEN TO CAPTURE THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
BAND CURRENTLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE PREFERENCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS A COMBINATION OF THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING AS EXPECTED FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN KENAI PENINSULA INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND SPENT MUCH OF THE MORNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THAN EXPECTED...THUS OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS IN POPULATED AREAS MAY END
UP COMING IN A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COAST MOUNTAINS FROM KENAI NORTH TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND ENTERS COOK INLET THIS
AFTERNOON THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE DRYING
SHOULD DISSIPATE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD
BLEED THEIR WAY INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
NARROW...AND SO WHAT WOULD USUALLY BE CONSIDERED MINOR CHANGES IN
POSITION WILL HAVE A LARGER-THAN-NORMAL IMPACT ON OBSERVED SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE ANCHORAGE AREA
WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. FURTHER NORTH...A WEAKER BUT LINGERING DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD DIMINISH SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST...COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME
SPILLOVER OF SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A ZONAL JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP THE STATUS-QUO LARGELY INTACT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THIS MEANS FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREA. AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY ON THURSDAY A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY TO
BECOME STRONGER THAN THE OTHER SYSTEMS SEEN RECENTLY IN THE
AREA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS STORM TRACKS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASINGLY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WHOLESALE CHANGE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA AND A RETURN TO MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT PERSISTS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 125
MARINE...GALE 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 139 150 160 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD FEB 14