Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD

795 
WWUS83 KABR 110003
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
703 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ272-273-110115-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140411T0000Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-
703 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 039...046...272 AND 273...

AS THE TEMPERATURE COOLS AND WIND SUBSIDES...CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT TO GO. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...FIRE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN CWA REMAINS A CONCERN.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW DRAWING COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.
ADD SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND MIXING TO AROUND 5-6KFT WILL RESULT
IN SOME 20 TO 25KTS OF WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS PUTS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CWA CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA/VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS ERRATIC HOWEVER...AND GIVEN THE
LOWER SPEEDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
FOR MOISTURE...OR INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURES A 50-60KFT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUNDINGS ARE DEVOID OF
CAPE HOWEVER. MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIRMASS
THAT FOLLOWS SATURDAY. THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...AS H85 READINGS TOP
OUT BETWEEN +6 AND +12C. THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF COLD
ADVECTION TRANSLATES INTO MUCH COLDER HIGHS POTENTIALLY. ALL
MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO AWAY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND STAY AWAY UNTIL LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE OUT PERIODS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO NORMAL. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE SUGGESTING THE
RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST FLOW PATTERN MAY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SD/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-110845-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
338 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014 /238 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...MILD
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY