Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Tucson, AZ

045 
WGUS75 KTWC 021417
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
717 AM MST MON SEP 2 2013

AZC023-021425-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130902T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
717 AM MST MON SEP 2 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH HEAVY FLOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THE NOGALES WASH THROUGH 
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...THE RAINFALL FROM THE STRONG STORMS EARLIER 
THIS MORNING NEAR NOGALES HAS HAD AMPLE TIME TO DRAIN INTO WASHES 
AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE 
AREA THROUGH 815 AM MST.

LAT...LON 3141 11097 3141 11094 3133 11091 3133 11097

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
515 AM MST MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...OUTFLOW FROM SONORAN MCS MOVING NW KICKING OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. HAVE HAD A
COUPLE RAINFALL REPORTS IN AND AROUND SIERRA VISTA BETWEEN
0.75"-1.25". WILL BE ISSUING SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS
SHORTLY. OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE NW INTO ERN PIMA COUNTY THROUGH
SUNRISE. UPDATE FORECAST TO UP POPS IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE INFLUENCING A COMPLEX FORECAST
FOR TODAY. AS OF 245 AM...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF NOGALES
WAS SLOWLY DECREASING WITH RADAR INDICATING THAT AN MCV WAS
DEVELOPING FROM IT. THIS IDEA IS BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR. TO THE EAST ACROSS NE SONORA A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING W-NW LIKELY BEING AIDED BY DISTURBANCE
ALOFT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL IMPACT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS THIS MORNING. BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL FROM TUCSON WEST WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED MCV WILL MOVE INTO.
WITH PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5" WEST OF TUCSON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR. EAST OF TUCSON PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1" THUS EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON WEST.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO 15-20 MPH
MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AGAIN HIGHEST PW VALUES WILL BE WEST OF
TUCSON.

WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
BEING SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON.

LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCTD -SHRA/TS SE OF KTUS THRU 02/17Z. TSRA/SHRA WILL
INCR IN AREAL COVG MNLY FM KTUS S AND W AFT 02/18Z. THE STRONGER
TSRA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY
EVENING OR 03/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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