Wind Advisory 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

POWERFUL UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS EMERGING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS MORNING. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT FROM SW MO CLEAR DOWN TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY
AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS. CONVECTION IS MORE
INTENSE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THUS FAR...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FROM THE LOCAL MODEL THAT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD
CLIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 15-18Z TIME
FRAME. BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AND A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE FROM THE MIXED LAYER DOWN TO THE
GROUND SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE DAY FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THE AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. I HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA FROM 17Z TO 00Z. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOTS OF SUN WILL RESULT IN A
MILD DAY IN THE 60S. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIR AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE POLAR FRONT
SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO A COOLER START
TO THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY.

NOW THE FUN BEGINS FORECASTING WISE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
FORECASTED A PIECE OF ENERGY TO HANG BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO TAP INTO A STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER PRECIP EVENT THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEN WE HAVE THE ISSUE OF PRECIP TYPE. THE
NAM...WHOSE PATTERN AGREES WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGS
COLD AIR IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE SYSTEM DIGS DOWN INTO NM AND
THEN EJECTS EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. NAM THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN TO START...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY
MIDDAY FROM NW TO SE AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE DATA FALLING INTO THE COLD
AIR...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS FORECAST
IS THE WARM ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED A WARM NEAR SURFACE
LAYER IN ITS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COLD IT WILL BE
TUESDAY...I WILL ELECT TO NOT ISSUE A 5TH PERIOD WATCH. I WILL
HOWEVER RAMP UP THIS EVENT IN AN SPS AND BRIEFING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DATA
STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. WILL LEAVE GOING DRY FORECAST ALONE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  34  53  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  35  58  38 /  30   0   0  10
MLC   67  36  58  38 /  10   0   0  30
BVO   64  30  51  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   63  31  53  32 /  30   0   0  10
BYV   63  35  52  31 /  40   0   0  10
MKO   66  34  55  37 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   63  33  50  30 /  10   0   0  10
F10   65  36  54  37 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   68  38  62  43 /  30   0  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  SEVERE WEATHER...SHOULD IT DEVELOP...
IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST.  THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  FURTHER NORTH...
INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN AND REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.  ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES TO FALL VERY LOW.  DESPITE THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL...THESE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
AGGRESSIVE WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND
SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXACT AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT REMAINING MORE UNCERTAIN.  DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.