High Wind Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

552 
WWUS73 KTOP 171804
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

KSZ020>023-034>039-054-055-172100-
/O.CON.KTOP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131117T2100Z/
CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-LYON-OSAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONCORDIA...CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...
ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...EMPORIA
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND NOON AND 
  CONTINUE THROUGH 3 PM. 

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING EXTREMELY 
  DIFFICULT ON NORTH SOUTH HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH 
  PROFILE VEHICLES. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO 
  WEAKENED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY

&&

$$

KSZ008>012-024-026-040-056-058-059-172300-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...LAWRENCE...
OTTAWA
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  AROUND 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON 
  NORTH SOUTH HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 
  AREA LAKES AND BOATERS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE STRONG 
  WINDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

287 
WWUS73 KTOP 172056
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

KSZ020>023-034>039-054-055-172300-
/O.CAN.KTOP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131117T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KTOP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-LYON-OSAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONCORDIA...CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...
ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...EMPORIA
256 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  AROUND 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON
  NORTH SOUTH HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
  AREA LAKES AND BOATERS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE STRONG
  WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

KSZ008>012-024-026-040-056-058-059-172300-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-131117T2300Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...LAWRENCE...
OTTAWA
256 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  AROUND 50 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON 
  NORTH SOUTH HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 
  AREA LAKES AND BOATERS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE STRONG 
  WINDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Latest surface analysis at 08Z had a surface low over north central
Kansas along a stationary front that extended from Iowa back into
southeast Colorado. Satellite imagery this morning shows the
shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies.

The surface low pressure is forecast to move off to the east as the
upper wave moves through the Central Plains with an increasing
pressure gradient behind the cold front moving across northeast
Kansas. This will bring strong winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to
around 45 mph possible from mid morning through late afternoon as
forecast soundings show deep mixing today with steep low level lapse
rates. These stronger winds will affect the entire forecast area and
sustained winds around 30 mph will be common so will go with a wind
advisory today from 10 am to 5 pm. The deep mixing will also mix
down drier air and as a result minimum afternoon humidity of 20
percent or less is expected across parts of north central Kansas.
The low relative humidity and critical fuels will produce very high
to extreme fire danger and will continue with the Red Flag Warning
for parts of north central Kansas today.

Tonight the winds will be on the decrease through the early evening
hours as the lower boundary layer decouples and broad surface high
pressure builds into central and eastern Kansas. Lows tonight will
fall into the middle 20s in north central to the mid 30s in east
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Early week periods starting fairly quiet, but southerly winds under
zonal flow aloft will bring moisture back rather quickly. Models are
trending faster with a shortwave zipping though the flow, with
moderate upper level potential vorticity advection and mid-level
isentropic lift combining for elevated precipitation possibilities
as early as Tuesday evening. Increasing lapse rates and PW values
again well above normal support some mention of thunder as well.
The faster timing should keep mixing up for a warmer night as well
as a quicker drying trend for Wednesday.

The medium range models are in agreement with increasingly amplified
split flow setting up for the late week periods, but much is left be
desired in agreement in the details and a low confidence forecast
continues. One issue is how fast the cold air will surge in behind a
northern branch wave and another is the character and speed of
southern branch upper energy. At this point have the highest PoPs
Thursday night and Friday with temps steadily cooling with column
temps increasingly supporting snow inclusion with time. There is
decent agreement with a secondary cold surge pushing precip chances
to the south by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

Winds will be the main concern again for today. Strong west to
northwest winds will increase by 17Z to around 27 kts with gusts
to 38 kts then diminish after 23Z to around 14 kts and under 10
kts by 02Z. VFR cigs and vsbys are expected through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ008-020>022-034>037.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-181145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
540 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BELLEVILLE
TO MANHATTAN TO COUNCIL GROVE. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.